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00:00 Today's headlines
00:46 Canada pays for standby launch pad access
01:19 China's reusable rocket and spaceplane steps
02:26 NASA fires RS-25 engine No. 10001 at Stennis
03:14 Starship catch of both stages
05:01 Catches versus a weekly launch schedule
The money, missions, and power shaping space. Space Stakes is a daily briefing on the business of the new space race — launches, contracts, constellations, and the capital behind them. Every episode cuts through the industry's hype: signed contracts vs. paper constellations, funded orders vs. "up to" ceilings, launch dates vs. track records. Who pays, who profits, and who actually delivers — told so both aerospace insiders and curious newcomers finish feeling it was made for them. Space Stakes is an AI-voiced podcast, created and built by a real human, Brian Lampert. Nothing on this show is financial advice.
Also from Brian Lampert: Quickly Quantum and Concrete Compute.
SpaceX says it will attempt to catch both stages of Starship on the next test flight, while aiming for weekly launches by early 2027, Ars Technica reports. The catches would take place at Starbase in South Texas, and SpaceX is targeting November for the flight. But that cadence depends on a return-to-launch-site flight over land, including northern Mexico, and on a license the company says it expects the FAA to include. What has to go right before a weekly schedule is more than a goal? Today, we’ll sort the hardware milestone from the regulatory and operational steps still ahead. Welcome back to Space Stakes, your daily brief on the business of space. It's Thursday, October 22, 2026. Let's get into it.
Canada’s Department of National Defence is paying for a launch pad to be ready when it needs one: SpaceQ Media Inc. reports that the department will pay NordSpace $20 million over 10 years for priority standby access to a pad at the Atlantic Spaceport Complex in St. Lawrence, Newfoundland and Labrador. The agreement pays for upkeep and readiness; each launch would be contracted separately when DND calls for one. SpaceQ says the funds, about $2 million a year, pay for that upkeep alone. That distinction matters: this is a facility-access agreement, not a launch order.
From Canada’s standby pad to China’s flight plans, NASASpaceFlight.com describes several steps toward reusable launch and commercial cargo. China is preparing for the first re-flight of a previously flown booster, while the Chang Zheng 12A will attempt to become China’s third rocket to have its first stage recovered, on its second attempt. That’s a planned attempt, not a completed recovery. The article also says a second Qingzhou cargo craft is being constructed for launch no earlier than January 2027, carrying up to 1,800 kilograms of supplies to the Tiangong space station. NASASpaceFlight.com reported that Qingzhou is not designed to be recovered, so it will burn up as it re-enters Earth’s atmosphere. And the reusable Haolong spaceplane? NASASpaceFlight.com says it is designed to land on a runway and could carry around 2,000 kilograms in upmass and downmass. The timing of an initial flight remains unclear.
Meanwhile, the lunar conversation has a new set of proposed destinations: SpaceNews posted on X that a study recommends four locations for human lunar missions beyond the south pole. That’s the full extent of the post’s claim; it doesn’t identify the locations.
NASA fired developmental RS-25 engine No. 10001 at Stennis Space Center, NASA says. Test teams fired the developmental engine for almost eight-and-a-half minutes (500 seconds), the same amount of time RS-25 engines fire during launch of NASA’s SLS (Space Launch System) rocket. NASA reported that operators also fired the engine up to the 111% power level. The test’s objectives included checking flight components for future Artemis missions and validating a thermal protection system, which protects the engine nozzle from heat around SLS during launch. NASA says this developmental engine will not be used in flight, but the test gives NASA and prime contractor L3Harris Technologies a way to capture data to improve engine performance and reliability. Useful work on the ground, with a clear limit: it isn’t a flight test.
That's the rest of the rundown. Now, the story that deserves the long look. Starship’s next flight is meant to test whether SpaceX can bring both stages back to the launch site and catch them with the tower, a step toward reusing the vehicle. Ars Technica reports that SpaceX is targeting November for its 15th test flight. After Starship lifts off on 14th test flight from Starbase, Texas, on September 28, 2026, SpaceX says it has enough data to try catching both the Super Heavy first stage and the Starship upper stage on the next flight. The first stage is the booster that lifts the vehicle; the upper stage is the spacecraft on top. SpaceX founder Elon Musk said success was “more likely than not,” while adding that the company is hardware rich if there are failures. That’s a serious test of recovery: both catches would happen at Starbase, SpaceX’s launch site in South Texas. The physical challenge comes with a regulatory one. The vehicle must return to the launch site over land, including northern Mexico. SpaceX president and chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell said, “We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA, and we expect the license for our Flight 15 to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages.” That is the company’s expectation for the license, not a statement that the FAA has already approved those operations. There’s a business reason the pace matters. Ars Technica reported that SpaceX’s long-term plans for data services from space rely on Starship, first with the Starlink internet constellation and eventually with what the article calls the “Starmind” data center constellation. The same article says company officials discussed ambitious plans to roll out up to 10 GW of compute in 2027—on the ground. That plan is distinct from the space-based services, but the rocket remains part of the company’s longer-term space ambitions.
The hard part is that a successful catch and a weekly schedule are different tests. Musk’s confidence and the company’s hardware readiness make the next flight a meaningful attempt, but neither establishes that the FAA will issue the license in the form Shotwell expects, or that the vehicle can repeat the operation at the pace SpaceX is targeting. Ars Technica reports the weekly-launch goal; it doesn’t report weekly launches as approved. The tension in this story is right there in the sequence: SpaceX has enough data from the 14th test flight to attempt both catches on the 15th, and the flight still has to return over land under a license the company expects to receive. A catch would be a real achievement. It would show that the company can recover the stages in that configuration on that flight. It wouldn’t, by itself, establish a weekly operating rhythm. I think the next flight can tell us a lot about whether Starship’s reuse plan is moving from ambition into demonstrated capability, and I’m cautiously encouraged by the fact that SpaceX is putting both stages into the attempt. The open point is repeatability: I’d change my confidence in the cadence goal only as successful catches and the expected licensing path become more than a single planned test. For a vehicle intended to support future services from space, flight rate is part of the business case, not a decorative performance metric. And the public test here is also a public-safety and oversight question: SpaceX says the return would cross land, including northern Mexico, while the FAA license remains an expectation in Shotwell’s statement. I think the company deserves credit for attempting a difficult recovery, and the largest ambitions deserve equally careful schedule discipline. What matters is what the taxpayer and the public actually get from the next step: a flight that demonstrates the operation, and a license that states what is permitted. Time for the Hype Check. My substance score is 6 out of 10: the strongest point against a higher score is that both catches and the FAA license are still ahead, while the concrete case for progress is SpaceX’s plan to try both after the 14th test flight. The stake is whether Starship can support a faster pace; November’s targeted 15th test flight will show whether the catches move from attempt to achievement.
If this kind of clear-eyed look at rockets and the business around them works for you, follow Space Stakes wherever you listen. This has been Space Stakes, an AI-voiced podcast, created and built by a real human using today's cutting-edge technology. Nothing you heard on this show is financial advice. I'm Brian Lampert, and I'll catch you all tomorrow — take care!
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