Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 14, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 72 events on
Thursday, including European pushback on
the US approach to Ukraine, and Russia's
interest in a Red Sea naval base in Sudan.
Let's go ahead and get started.
Terrorism
"Afghanistan
A suicide bomb explosion occurred
outside a ministry building in Kabul.
At least one person was killed, and
several others were injured in the blast.
The attack is suspected to be the
work of the Islamic State-Khorasan
(IS-K) affiliate, which has been
responsible for multiple high-profile
attacks in the country since the
Taliban took control in 2021."
"France
A grenade exploded in a bar in Grenoble,
France, on Wednesday, injuring 12 people,
including two in critical condition.
Authorities believe the incident
was an ""act of extreme violence""
possibly linked to a settling
of scores or drug trafficking
rather than a terrorist attack."
"Gaza Strip
A rocket was launched from the Gaza
Strip, but it landed inside the Gaza Strip
itself, according to the Israeli military.
The purpose of the rocket is unclear.
The Israeli military has stated that it
remains committed to implementing the
conditions of the ceasefire agreement."
"Germany
A car has been driven into
a group of people in Munich,
Germany, injuring 15 individuals.
The incident occurred near the
city's central train station, where
a police operation is underway.
The driver has been detained and
is no longer considered a threat.
The incident may be linked to a
demonstration related to a labor strike."
"Germany
A car was driven into a crowd of
workers taking part in a union
demonstration in Munich, injuring at
least 28 people, including children.
The driver, a 24-year-old Afghan asylum
seeker named Farhad N, was arrested
after police fired a shot at the vehicle.
Authorities suspect the incident was
an attack, but the motive is unclear.
The suspect had been known to authorities
for theft and drug offenses and
had a rejected asylum application."
"Iraq
A mass grave containing the remains of
17 individuals executed by ISIS has been
discovered in Al-Hawija, Kirkuk, Iraq.
This is one of many mass graves across
the country, with over 200 documented
sites of individuals who may have
been executed between 2014 and 2017."
"Israel
Israeli security forces have arrested
two young men from Arab Israeli
towns on suspicion of planning terror
attacks against soldiers and civilians.
The suspects, who expressed support for
Hamas, allegedly planned to shoot at a
military facility, conduct a car-ramming
attack, and manufacture explosives to
target a bus carrying IDF soldiers."
"Niger
In Niger, four soldiers were injured
in an IED attack in Tillabery.
Security operations from Sunday to
Wednesday led to the arrest of 27
terrorists linked to Boko Haram and ISWAP.
Authorities seized weapons,
vehicles, motorcycles, radios,
stolen cattle, and fuel.
Niger faces violence in bordering
regions due to terrorist groups
controlling southern Libya and groups
linked to Al-Qaida and Boko Haram."
"Pakistan
A house owned by a Pakistan Air Force
official, Taimur Khan, was destroyed in
a bomb blast by a terrorist group in the
Miralam Manjiwala area on Tuesday night.
The blast damaged several rooms
and a boundary wall, and an
investigation is underway."
"Pakistan
Advocate Qamar Javed, a local
leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
(PTI), was shot dead in Hafizabad.
The incident occurred in the Kot
Nakka area when the victim was
on his way to the mosque to pray.
He was targeted by unidentified assailants
who opened fire and fled the scene.
Javed was a PTI provincial
candidate in the last elections."
"South Sudan
A cattle raid in Mariik, Warrap State,
has left at least five people injured
and resulted in the theft of livestock.
The attack is believed to be a revenge
raid by the Luany-Jang community,
following an earlier assault by
youth from the Akook community."
"Syria
A hand grenade was thrown at a house
in Al-Daweer Town, Deir Ezzor, by
a member of the former ""National
Defence"" militia due to old disputes.
Clashes broke out between residents
and militia members, but fortunately,
no casualties were reported."
"Syria
A grenade explosion occurred in a civilian
house in Sarmada city, Idlib countryside.
Three men lost their lives, while
three other civilians, including
children, were injured in the blast.
The injured were promptly taken to
the hospital for medical attention.
The circumstances surrounding
the explosion remain unclear."
"Syria
ISIS-affiliated gunmen detonated an IED
in Abu Al-Hassan town, injuring an SDF
fighter and damaging a military vehicle.
No other casualties or
damage were reported."
"Syria
Members of the General Security
in Ezrae' city, Daraa countryside,
arrested an armed group linked to
Hezbollah led by Alaa Mohamed Al-Kayed.
The group, which includes some
fugitives, attacked the General Security
headquarters but was repelled, and
seven members were taken into custody."
"West Bank
A Palestinian suspect was shot at the
entrance to an IDF base near Nablus in
the northern West Bank after allegedly
crashing his car into the gate and
moving suspiciously towards troops.
The suspect's condition is unknown,
but no soldiers were injured."
Military Conflict
"Brazil
The Brazilian Air Force (FAB) shot
down a drug trafficking aircraft
from Venezuela on February 11,
2025, as part of Operation Ostium.
An Embraer A-29 Super Tucano
intercepted the plane, and after
the pilot failed to comply with
orders, the FAB fired warning shots.
The plane crashed near Manaus.
Authorities found the bodies of
two pilots and a drug shipment.
Operation Ostium has reinforced
airspace surveillance since 2017
to prevent drug trafficking."
"Gaza Strip
The Israeli Defense Forces
(IDF) carried out an airstrike
in the central Gaza Strip.
The strike targeted a rocket
launcher, which was used to fire
a rocket earlier in the day.
The rocket itself landed
inside Gaza, resulting in the
reported death of a teenager."
"Myanmar
On February 12, 2025, junta troops
bombed Kyeintali Town in Arakan
State again, injuring U Chit Gyi.
Airstrikes hit Ward No.
2, destroying two homes."
"Myanmar
On February 10, the Myanmar junta
conducted an airstrike on Nat La Port
(North) village in Kani, using parachute
bombs, resulting in the death of one
man and severe injuries to a woman.
The attack occurred despite no ongoing
fighting in the area, and the village
has been frequently targeted by
artillery shelling and drone bombings."
"Myanmar
The Myanmar military conducted air and
artillery attacks on several villages
south of Monywa, killing at least nine
people and injuring over 20 others.
The attacks targeted villages in
Monywa and Chaung-U townships, with
reports of civilian casualties,
including women and children.
The death toll is expected to rise as
some victims are critically injured.
The attacks have also led to the
forced displacement of residents in
the area, with some villages being
besieged by resistance forces."
"Pakistan
Security forces conducted five operations
on February 12-13, 2025, neutralizing at
least 13 terrorists in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Operations took place in Dera
Ismail Khan, North Waziristan,
Lakki Marwat, and Khyber districts."
"Philippines
On Tuesday, a Chinese fighter aircraft
released flares within 30 meters of
an Australian military plane, a P-8
Poseidon, in the South China Sea.
The Australian government has described
the interaction as ""unsafe and
unprofessional"" and lodged formal
objections with the Chinese government.
Defence Minister Richard Marles
stated that the incident was clearly
dangerous and that Australia expects
countries to operate their militaries
in a safe and professional manner."
"Philippines
A high-ranking leader of the New People's
Army (NPA), Myrna Sularte, was killed
in a clash with government troops in
Agusan del Norte on February 13, 2025.
Sularte, the widow of a prominent
NPA figure, Jorge ""Ka Oris""
Madlos, was responsible for numerous
atrocities and was one of the most
wanted NPA leaders in the country."
"Russia
On February 13, drones attacked the
Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant and
the Transneft Baltika distribution
station in the Lipetsk region.
No casualties were reported, but
an employee was injured, and damage
was reported in other regions."
"Somalia
Recent airstrikes in the Puntland
province of Somalia have resulted
in the deaths of over 30 fighters
from the Daesh/ISIS terror group.
The strikes targeted positions
in the Almiskaad mountains,
killing mostly foreign fighters
and destroying a supply vehicle."
"South Sudan
A clash between security forces and a
gang has occurred in Bor, Jonglei State.
At least one suspected gang member died,
and three individuals have been arrested.
The Acting Governor confirmed that the
majority of the gang members came from
other states in South Sudan, seeking
to avoid crackdowns in their areas.
The incident has led to market
closures, leaving residents
without access to essential goods
and causing widespread panic.
Additional security forces have
been deployed to restore peace
and stability in the area."
"Sudan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
have attacked the Zamzam camp for
displaced people near El Fasher, North
Darfur, resulting in the deaths of 8
residents and injuries to 31 others.
The attack was the second in two days
and has been condemned by the governor
of the Darfur region, Minni Minawi.
The RSF claims to have targeted rebel
bases in the camp, but witnesses
and local sources have accused
them of targeting civilians."
"Syria
Turkish forces have escalated
their attacks on the Qarquzaq
Bridge area, causing injuries to
civilians and ongoing artillery fire.
The attacks also targeted Zor Maghar
village in western Ain Al-Arab (Kobane),
resulting in significant material damage."
"Syria
There have been clashes between
Turkish-backed factions and the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the
Al-Sa'idin Village area near Teshrin Dam.
Turkish artillery has also been shelling
areas in Ain Al-Arab (Kobane) and
Ain Eissa Town, causing damage to the
electricity station and power outages.
Fortunately, no casualties have
been reported in these incidents."
"Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
announced the deaths of three
Turkish soldiers and injuries to
two members of Turkey-backed forces.
Turkish warplanes have carried out
airstrikes on villages and towns,
including Al-Taynah, Ghassak, and
Sheikhlar Shuyukh, resulting in material
damage and heavy artillery fire."
"Syria
Turkish forces fired heavy artillery
shells on Ain Eissa Town in the
Al-Raqqa countryside, damaging
the local electricity station
and cutting power to the area.
Fortunately, no casualties were reported."
"Taiwan
Taiwan detected six sorties of PLA
aircraft, eight PLAN vessels, and one
official ship operating around the island.
Four of the six aircraft sorties
crossed the median line and entered
Taiwan's northern Air Defense
Identification Zone (ADIZ)."
"Ukraine
Russian forces dropped two FAB-250
aerial bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring five
people, including a 16-year-old girl.
A 46-year-old man died from his injuries.
The attack damaged two
houses and several cars.
This is the second attack on Kramatorsk
in one day, with emergency services
assessing the full extent of the damage."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched over 30 attacks
on the Kherson region on February 13,
2025, using artillery and FPV drones.
The attacks resulted in 2 fatalities,
multiple injuries, and over
20 damaged civilian buildings,
including homes and vehicles."
"Ukraine
A drone attack by Russian forces
targeted the Odesa region overnight,
causing fires and damage to port
infrastructure, residential buildings,
an educational institution, and vehicles.
One person, a 51-year-old local
woman, was injured and hospitalized
with a shrapnel wound to the thigh."
"Ukraine
Ukraine's Defense Forces
repelled a Russian drone attack
on February 12, destroying 85
Russian drones and 52 UAV decoys.
The attack, which involved 140
Shahed-type kamikaze drones, caused
damage in Odesa and Kharkiv regions."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,250 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Around 430 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked the central
district of Kherson, injuring two people.
A 48-year-old man was taken
to the hospital with injuries,
while a 55-year-old woman
received treatment on the spot."
"Ukraine
On February 12, a Russian missile
strike damaged the offices of several
Ukrainian foreign broadcasting
channels in Kyiv, including
FreeDom, UATV English, and others.
Fortunately, no employees were
injured, and the channels were
broadcasting from backup studios."
"Ukraine
Russian forces have launched an
attack on Kramatorsk in the Donetsk
region, targeting the industrial
zone and residential areas.
The city's military administration
is assessing the damage, and
emergency services are on the scene."
"Ukraine
Russian troops attacked a village in
the Novhorod-Siverskyi district of the
Chernihiv region, causing damage to a
house and an agricultural enterprise.
No injuries were reported.
The attack involved
mortar fire and drones."
"Ukraine
The city of Kramatorsk in the
Donetsk region was shelled by
Russian forces, resulting in victims.
Casualty figures and damage assessments
were not reported in the attack."
"West Bank
Israel has reportedly carried out a strike
on a vehicle in the West Bank city of
Jenin, according to Palestinian media.
The incident comes amid the ongoing
Operation Iron Wall, a counter-terror
operation launched by the IDF last month."
"West Bank
The Israeli military, as part of Operation
Iron Wall, has killed over 60 Palestinian
terror operatives and detained over 210 in
the northern West Bank since January 21.
The operation, which is expected to last
several more weeks, has resulted in the
mistaken killing of several civilians,
including a toddler and a pregnant woman."
Political Conflict
"Afghanistan
Hibatullah Akhundzada, the Taliban's
reclusive leader, made a rare visit
to Kandahar University, where he
spoke about the importance of both
religious and modern education.
In a shift from the Taliban's previous
emphasis on Islamic knowledge, Akhundzada
acknowledged the value of modern
education, urging students to study
both worldly and religious subjects.
However, the event highlighted the
ongoing restrictions on women's access
to education in Afghanistan, with
no female students in attendance."
"Belgium
US President Donald Trump's announcement
of peace talks with Russia's Vladimir
Putin has raised concerns among
European allies that Ukraine may be
excluded from direct negotiations.
European leaders, including German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz and EU top
diplomat Kaja Kallas, have rejected
any ""dictated peace"" and emphasized
the need for Ukraine to have a
seat at the negotiating table."
"China
China urged the Philippines
to withdraw the U.S.
Typhon missile system from its territory,
citing concerns over regional peace and
stability during a press conference.
The Philippines initially agreed to
a temporary deployment in April 2024
but now plans to procure the system."
"Gaza Strip
Hamas has agreed to continue implementing
the ceasefire deal, including the release
of hostages held in Gaza, in exchange
for Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
This decision follows talks with Egyptian
and Qatari mediators in Cairo, who
have promised to facilitate the flow of
humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
The humanitarian provisions
of the agreement are expected
to be implemented, with aid
reportedly waiting to enter Gaza."
"Georgia
The European Parliament adopted a
resolution condemning democratic
backsliding in Georgia.
The resolution calls for sanctions
against former Prime Minister Bidzina
Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream
party, as well as new elections
under international observation.
It also urges the review of Georgia's
visa-free travel status with the EU,
the reallocation of frozen aid to civil
society and independent media, and the
release of former President Mikheil
Saakashvili for medical treatment abroad."
"Lebanon
Lebanon's parliament speaker, Nabih Berri,
has stated that Beirut rejects Israel's
plan to remain in five locations in the
south after the February 18 deadline
for implementing a ceasefire deal.
The Lebanese government considers
this proposal unacceptable."
"Malaysia
Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar
Ibrahim has announced that the country
will no longer require demonstrators
to seek permission before a rally.
This decision marks a shift towards
greater public dissent, a change
from Anwar's previous stance on
free speech and protest rights.
The move comes after controversy
surrounding the government's use of
arcane laws to stifle dissenting voices."
"Moldova
The Moldovan government has decided
to shut down the Russian Cultural
Center in Chisinau following an
incident in which Russian drones
violated Moldova's airspace.
This move comes after the Russian
ambassador was summoned to
present the remains of the drones.
The center, which has been operating
since 2009, aims to promote Russian
culture, education, and science."
"North Korea
North Korea is destroying a
12-story building in Diamond
Mountain resort, which had been
used for family reunions since 2009.
The move is seen as an act against
humanity and a grave infringement of
South Korea's state-owned property.
Relations between the two countries
are at their worst in years, with
North Korea continuing to develop
its nuclear program and rejecting
inter-Korean reconciliation."
"North Korea
North Korea has informed the UN
aviation agency that it plans to
stop using an air traffic control
communication channel with South
Korea, which was established in 1997.
Despite the channel not being used
due to the absence of inter-Korean air
traffic, South Korea has been maintaining
regular calls to check line connectivity.
The move comes amid strained cross-border
relations, with North Korea having
remained unresponsive to daily routine
calls with South Korea since April 2023."
"Sudan
Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Yusef
Sharif has confirmed that a 2019
agreement for a Russian naval base
in Sudan remains on the table.
The deal, signed under former
President Omar al-Bashir, was put on
hold by the army after his overthrow
but is now awaiting ratification.
Russia has been cultivating ties with
Sudan's warring factions and has expressed
interest in a fuelling station on the
Red Sea in exchange for military aid."
"United Kingdom
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy
met with Chinese counterpart Wang
Yi in London, reviving the UK-China
Strategic Dialogue after a 7-year stall.
This signals improving relations after
tensions over Hong Kong, espionage claims,
and China's stance on the Ukraine war.
PM Starmer and President Xi met
last November, and Finance Minister
Reeves visited China last month.
While the UK still raises human rights
concerns, Lammy emphasized ""robust
but constructive discussion.""
The UK government will soon
decide on Beijing's plan for
a new embassy in London."
Civil Unrest
"Belgium
Thousands of Belgians protested against
the new government's planned pension
reforms, which favor those working past
retirement age with 35 years of service.
The strike, expected to last one day,
disrupted air traffic, public transport,
and postal services, potentially harming
early retirees and lower-income earners.
The airport also canceled 430 flights."
"Israel
Protesters, including families of
hostages, are blocking the Ayalon Highway
in Tel Aviv to demand the completion
of the hostage release-ceasefire deal.
They are holding images of the
hostages, including those recently
released, who were found to be
severely malnourished and frail."
Cyber
"Israel
Israel's national payment system,
Shva, was targeted in a cyberattack,
causing a 26-minute disruption
to credit card transactions.
The incident, which occurred before
noon, affected clearing and approval
systems, leaving some consumers
unable to use their credit cards."
Weapons
"Lebanon
IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon
demolished Hezbollah weapon depots,
uncovering missiles, rockets, mortars,
grenades, explosive devices, firearms,
and a multiple rocket launcher system.
Combat engineers blew
up the seized weapons."
Accidents
"Egypt
The USS Harry S.
Truman, a U.S.
aircraft carrier, collided with a large
merchant vessel near Port Said, Egypt, in
the Mediterranean Sea on Wednesday night.
Fortunately, no injuries were reported,
and the carrier did not flood.
The Navy confirmed that the ship's nuclear
propulsion plants remain unaffected
and are in a safe, stable condition."
"Russia
Two workers were killed in an
accident at a potash mine in the
Ural Mountains region of Perm.
The incident occurred during a
routine inspection of a shaft in the
town of Solikamsk, where a deposit
of salt rock broke off from support
structures, crushing the miners to death.
An internal investigation has been
launched by the mine's operator,
Uralkali, and a criminal investigation
is underway to probe potential
industrial safety violations."
"South Sudan
An explosion at the SSPDF's Malual-Chaat
Barracks in Bor, Jonglei State, killed
a 14-year-old girl and injured others.
The blast, caused by a fire in an
ammunition store, is the third in
the country in less than a year."
"Syria
A landmine explosion occurred in
Arab Hassan Village near Manbij City,
injuring a civilian with shrapnel.
The individual was taken to a
hospital for proper medication.
The incident happened in an area
controlled by the National Army."
"Syria
In Homs countryside, three landmine
explosions occurred, resulting
in four injuries and two deaths.
Incidents were reported in Jabal
Al-Omour area, Al-Naâem Village, and near
Al-Tabaka Crossing in SDF-held areas."
"Taiwan
A gas explosion at a shopping
mall in Taichung, Taiwan, killed
at least five and injured others.
The blast occurred on the 12th floor,
where a food court was under construction.
Footage shows debris falling and
smoke rising from the building.
Over 130 firefighters responded.
President Lai Ching-te has
called for an investigation."
"Turkey
A Liberia-flagged tanker, Jag, has
leaked fuel oil while bunkering at
Ambarli, near Istanbul, in Türkiye.
The incident occurred on February 10 due
to a technical failure, and pollution
barriers were placed around the tanker.
An investigation has been opened,
and a pollution fine was issued
under Marpol regulations."
"United States
A man has died in a mining accident in
Harrison County on Wednesday morning.
The incident occurred at a coal
mine between New Athens and
Cadiz on Ohio 9, with emergency
crews arriving around 9:30 a.m.
The cause of the accident
is under investigation."
"United States
A train derailed on the West Side
of the city near 26th Street.
Six empty railcars tipped over, but
fortunately, no one was injured.
BNSF Railway officials are
currently investigating the
cause of the derailment."
Other Events
"Japan
The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
(MSDF) has begun Pacific Stellar,
a joint exercise with the U.S.
and French navies in the Pacific
Ocean east of the Philippines.
The drill involves MSDF vessels,
including the destroyer Kaga, and U.S.
and French aircraft carriers,
including the USS Carl Vinson
and the Charles de Gaulle.
The exercise is expected to last
until Tuesday and is aimed at
maintaining regional stability,
particularly in relation to China."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
14, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
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