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A daily podcast delving into the biggest stories of the day throughout the sports betting and igaming sector.
Charlie Horner (00:01.324)
This morning, the government of Gibraltar made what it described as a historic move by launching the world's first dedicated regulatory regime for licensed prediction markets. Trade Minister Nigel Feetham stated that the regime will not be about labels, with Gibraltar choosing to regulate prediction markets based on the integrity of contracts, market conduct, and consumer protections, rather than classifying them as gambling or financial products.
Across 2025 and 2026, Gibraltar has overhauled its governance of high-risk sectors including gambling, fintech, crypto, and now prediction markets. But how will its latest move reshape regulatory thinking across Europe and in other jurisdictions that've so far taken a restrictive approach to prediction markets? Welcome back to iGaming Daily, supported by OpsMove, the creator of positionless marketing and the number one player engagement solution for sports betting and iGaming Markets, iGaming Operators.
Welcome back to iGaming Daily, supported by OpsMove, the creator of positionless marketing and the number one player engagement solution for sports betting and iGaming operators. I'm Charlie Horner and today I'm joined by our editor at large, Ted Manmuir, and SBC News editor Ted Ormclay. Ted how's things?
ted (01:16.892)
Very well Charlie. Yes, into the semis now. Again, I think like every podcast this summer, we have to begin with talking about the football. But yeah, looking forward to the Argentina match in which I'll be in Tbilisi with the CC Gang. So yeah, big night on Wednesday.
Ted Orme-Claye (01:24.334)
Yeah
Charlie Horner (01:36.494)
Yeah, and hopefully the the entirety of Tbilisi is back in England. But we'll we'll see. Ted L C how are you?
Ted Orme-Claye (01:43.087)
Yeah, pretty good. Thank you. Also looking forward to the game You know, I know it I know it becomes a bit of a broken record You've got you've got to mention the World Cup on these podcasts on it when it's on you've got to talk about it and yeah England held off the Viking invasion at the weekend that everyone was prophesizing so much about and yeah Fruit of Argentina, which is the big test in it
Charlie Horner (02:09.451)
Yeah. Fur. we're coming for ya. So, let's let's jump into this because this is this is big news, isn't it? Gibraltar's back in the headlines and it is going to regulate prediction markets, which is which is a landmark moment. Ted O C, how how significant is this as a validation of the prediction markets vertical and and their regulatory status in Europe?
ted (02:12.594)
You
Ted Orme-Claye (02:34.362)
For the prediction markets, this is pretty huge, I think. I think it'd be putting it lightly or being a bit of an understatement to say that the regulatory landscape around predictions is fragmented. It's highly fragmented, as many industries are, to be fair. But it's one where we're really seeing some stark lines being drawn between regulators are OK with it and ones who are bitterly, bitterly opposed to it, particularly in Europe. We've seen countless countries in Europe kick out
ted (02:58.536)
Mm-hmm.
Ted Orme-Claye (03:04.176)
a polymarket or calce or both you know for top of my head the Netherlands France Belgium Portugal Ukraine Romania I think and the list goes on and then we you know going beyond Europe as well as plenty of other countries that was on the same Argentina I think actually I believe Ted wrote about that not long ago they became the first country to the first Latin American country to put an outright block on against against a predictions platform I think
So yeah, know, they're doing globally, they're doing well financially, but regulatorily, they're coming up against a lot of hurdles. I think the kind of endorsement by Gibraltar predictions as we see this as a new vertical, like a new dawn.
Gibraltar being a territory that's very significant to the gambling sector as well. It's a historical hub. It's played a big role in the online betting and gaming space's development in Europe.
particularly with regards to the UK of course. think the fact that Gibraltar is now looking to do the same sort of thing for predictions will probably get a lot of platforms, particularly maybe some of the up and comers quite hopeful. Obviously they'd already been making moves in this space by licensing two companies under the gaming, the existing gaming framework. They're now looking at making that completely standalone and...
those two companies, ADI Predictstree and Wire Markets run by American company WagerWire. I'd imagine they'll be migrated over to the new platform and Gibraltar will then be trying to invite more companies to come in.
ted (04:43.366)
Yeah, I I echo a lot of what Ted Osega said. And look, we kind of knew that this was coming and Gibraltar has shown its hands, but I think kind of the strongest element.
that Gibraltar is doing, it's moving ahead of the pack. It is actually putting in kind of the boundaries in place to define predictions beyond the US framework. And it's created kind of its own kind of standalone category with specific rules covering contract approval, market manipulation, insider dealing, customer assets, money laundering, and kind of the objective or kind of the objective outlook for prediction markets.
and its engagement with general consumers, which is a good thing. think something, especially along European lines, to give. Gibraltar makes the first move. Let's see how others react.
Charlie Horner (05:34.37)
Yeah, it is often the case that Gibraltar is one of the first to move on on high risk setors like like prediction markets like gambling. Ted Ted O C I've got to shout you out because you did a a really good report on SBC News about this about this story today. we'll put the link in the show notes so people can take a read. but wha what do we know about what what has been disclosed under this regulatory j regime and how does Gibraltar actually classify prediction markets?
ted (05:39.527)
Mm-hmm.
Ted Orme-Claye (06:03.438)
I Ted's already given this a bit of a mention. Ted gave us a bit of a breakdown there as to what the regime's looking at. We know that it's going to be overseen by a standalone authority similar to how...
Obviously I know it's easy to make comparisons of the gambling regime isn't it? But gambling in Gibraltar is overseen by a gambling commissioner who has their own staff and their own department and so on of the government to oversee that industry. It looks like that's going to be the same for the predictions so we'll see some kind of predictions authority, predictions commissioner maybe overseeing this new regulatory vertical for Gibraltar. Obviously it will come with its own licences and its own checks and balances and requirements there.
Ted's already mentioned a few of them. There's going to be, think that they're focusing quite heavily on anti-money laundering, as is the case with the gambling sector, as is the case with the financial sector, which obviously predictions is a vertical that kind of crosses over into both of those really, isn't I think it's quite interesting that they mentioned the need to regulate and keep an eye on crypto assets and how they relate or like digital assets and how they relate to predictions. We've talked about this before on the podcast, I think, haven't we, Charlie, about how much crossover there is between
ted (06:58.812)
Yep.
Ted Orme-Claye (07:18.03)
the prediction space and the crypto and blockchain space. Obviously a lot of the big platforms are built on blockchain. A lot of them use cryptocurrency as a transaction method. know, Polymarket, which is the second biggest predictions platform globally in terms of valuation after Calchoo, is built on the Polygon blockchain and uses the US dollar pegged stablecoin, USDC, I believe. I hope I've got that abbreviation right.
So you know that really shows you how intertwined these two spaces are so that's why I think it was quite interesting and quite notable that Gibraltar is clearly keeping an eye on that, wants to make sure they're regulating the crypto side of predictions as well. And Ted mentioned it as well at the market integrity side of things. Obviously that's very important. Gibraltar has clearly been paying very close attention to what a lot of the concerns about predictions are. They've done their homework on this one. You know we've seen lots of cases,
Relating to I think again, Cauchy and Polymarket but like accusations of insider trading by people in the US government and the US military and so on around some of the some US military actions this year and then like general concerns about politics markets and war markets and so on as they're as they've referred to in the mainstream So yeah, I don't think it's at all surprising to see Gibraltar wanting to keep a close eye on that as well on the market integrity side of things
Charlie Horner (08:27.277)
Mm-hmm.
Charlie Horner (08:45.111)
Mm-hmm.
ted (08:45.548)
I mean, in kind of the build up to today's announcement, I we were told at the start of the year that there would be, you know, specific rules or a signatory regime for prediction markets by Andrew Lyman, executive, former chairman of, sorry, former governor of gambling for Gibraltar. And what, you know, what I think is positive is that it's just not bogged down on kind of the labeling or classification of prediction markets.
This is what Gibraltar thinks it is. These are the rules. These are the remits for the licenses. It's all very clear. I think that if you look at it at other European regulators, they've just gone straight into it's like how reflective of gambling is it? Are people wagering? And I think that that's kind of been stuck, this debate in the mud. At least one jurisdiction is kind of pushing through.
Charlie Horner (09:42.286)
Mm-hmm. Yeah, certainly. I think, you know, it does help to give a bit of of clarity and to provide a a bit of a framework around it. but but Ted we we said that Gibraltar isn't scared of of tackling these issues with with high risk sectors like gambling, like prediction markets, crypto, fintech. How how do you think that this latest framework sort of fits in with that wider
wider regulatory sort of effort from from the government of Gibraltar.
ted (10:13.682)
Well, okay, so I think that, you know, post-Brexit, post-COVID and also...
Gibraltar has really rethought about its economic outlook. And it is a hub not just for gaming, but for a lot of the domicile of high risk businesses, being financial transactions, insurance, long, long before gambling. And gambling ever since even post the 2000s, it has already established itself.
that is, you know, these are sectors that are attractive to the Gibraltar economy, to the Gibraltar government, and it's made itself kind of a hub for them now. So I think that Gibraltar is looking, you know, a decade ahead to 2030s and seeing how kind of economies and online, especially online ones, are evolving.
And I think that also when it talks about kind of its governance and prediction markets, one thing that you see there is that it sees that there are so many kind of intertwining elements, you know, across all sectors, particularly in terms of fraud, AML, and kind of market integrity too. And also how you deal with the kind of modern consumer who, you know, is boundless.
doesn't literally have to abide by the laws of any nation to interact with services. And I think that Gibraltar, through its experience in high risk sectors, knows where the consumer is going to. again, I think there are other determining factors to where this subject lands. There's still a huge, huge pushback in Europe.
ted (11:59.733)
And I don't want to repeat myself. Yes, it's a start, but I think that Gibraltar can actually just at least provide a better platform.
Charlie Horner (12:08.427)
Yeah, at the very least the better platform. but it but I guess the government has to keep one one step ahead of of the trends in terms of these high risk sectors to try and keep its position as a as a bit of a hub for these sectors, which it certainly has done over the last twenty years or so. okay, Ted Ted, we'll take a quick break and we'll come back and we'll carry on the discussion.
Charlie Horner (12:45.941)
Welcome back to iGaming Daily. Now I guess this is an issue with when we talk about Gibraltar wi with with regards to other sectors as well, but it might offer a reg a regulatory framework for predics, but I guess there's a juror jurisdiction question and and does that necessarily translate into market access in in other jurisdictions or will this framework
only be limited to consumers in Gibraltar, which it must be say we must say there aren't many. Ted L C what do we know about that?
Ted Orme-Claye (13:21.71)
be honest with you, I'm not as clued up on this one but it is an interesting discussion to have because of, like we said earlier, of how many gambling regulators across Europe in particular have been pretty adamant that they see predictions as an illegal offering. know, like France issued, the French ANJ issued a very, very strongly worded...
Statement earlier in the year basically just saying we consider predictions illegal and anyone running them in France will be subject to an enforcement We've seen the Netherlands do something similar the
The interesting one here is the UK because the UK and over here the gambling Commission has said that it will be open to the idea of predictions setting up here but they will be considered under their remit that you'll have to get a gambling Commission license so that basically excludes the likes of Polymarket and Calchow from setting up there because they're going to be pretty adamant they don't want a gambling license that undermines their whole argument in the US.
Charlie Horner (14:24.971)
Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Ted Orme-Claye (14:24.974)
that they've been having, you know, the whole regulatory conversation there, the litigation of the different states and so on. The two who were licensed in Gibraltar though, I ADI Predict Street were already registered as a betting intermediary. Wager Y as one was...
ted (14:28.264)
Mm-hmm.
Ted Orme-Claye (14:43.066)
was, I think, I don't think they've fully got one yet, but they've been approved in principle or something like that. Companies like these guys have shown that they are willing, I think, to work within the betting frameworks of different countries. So they'll be looking, I think, at setting themselves up in Gibraltar as their main licensing hub, the focal point of their operations, and then looking at how they can expand out from there into the markets where they might be able to work within the betting framework.
either directly or perhaps with third party partners. know, ADI Predict Street are active in the UK via their partnership with Matchbook, who were the first big, like, native British company to get involved in the prediction space by launching their B2B platform late last year. I think it was late last year, or maybe it was January this year.
Charlie Horner (15:29.003)
Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Ted Orme-Claye (15:32.143)
But you know, yeah recently not too long ago. So I just I think that's it is going to be a tricky one There's no doubt about that Gibraltar clearly sees this as a as a future vertical I mean, they've also been looking at how to modernize their gambling Framework separately. Haven't they Ted and I reported on it. I think we spoke about this on the podcast as well, didn't They've got a new gambling bill going through the Gibraltar Parliament But yeah, they see predictions of something separate to this that can be a new vertical of their economy of
ted (15:49.448)
sure.
Ted Orme-Claye (16:02.096)
their different licensing frameworks, but getting that to work with other jurisdictions could be bit of a tricky point going forward, it has to be said.
Charlie Horner (16:12.715)
Yeah, it it seems to raise more questions that it answers, Ted, doesn't it?
ted (16:13.704)
No, I mean for me, going back into this look, mean, to an extent, Gibraltar has opened the door to Europe, but I think now it's gonna be...
going to come down to the distinction and classification of prediction markets. And one thing that we know that these kind of US operators have said is that they don't want to be perceived as wagering. They want their own classification. Now, does that kind of separate them out from European gambling regulators? How will this be viewed at?
not only a European level but by member states individually, how are going to rewrite their market laws and their market supervision and you know again do they look at predictions as a financial services product.
There's so many aspects that are up in the air. We know that in the first phase, Europe has rejected them, but that does not mean that they are immediately disqualified. There's going to be a long, long legal road on this.
Charlie Horner (17:25.057)
Yeah, really long legal road I think and I I think it just yeah, just sort of goes to show that while there is clarity in one sense that there is far more questions that need to be answered eventually. Ted I'll sta stay with you quickly f on for this one. because we know that Gibraltar is a hub for for online gambling. We know that groups like Flutter and Evoke are are licensed there. that said, did you think that Gibraltar's taking a bit a bit of a risk on this one?
ted (17:55.241)
It's a good question. It's something that I was thinking about when the announcement came out this morning. How are kind of its heritage PLCs and tier ones going to react to this new element coming into play? one that is, to a certain extent you could say, is kind of predatory to sports betting. Does that mean that if you're flutter...
If you are evoking our of values international, do you view this as a new market coming in for European audiences? Do you want to even pitch and play there? We'll see how that kind of pans out. But I do think that there is a risk on Gibraltar, banging its nails to the mast and saying, look, we're going to go out and we are going to classify prediction markets irrespective of whether business that domiciles want that or like that.
Charlie Horner (18:53.037)
Yeah, and we know there's competition for for places as as those online gambling hubs. So you know, I don't think operators like that would be scared of of taking action if they, you know, veh vehemently disagreed with with the the path of the regulator. let's bring things towards a bit of a close now. with with a bit of an open question. I I'm really eager to get your thoughts on this one. Do you think that w whatever happens on the regulatory level
ted (18:54.887)
Yeah.
Charlie Horner (19:20.823)
Prediction markets are just going to be adopted or the future of them will be decided essentially by consumers and and users. Because if players want to use prediction market platforms, are they just gonna go there anyway, regardless of what regulation says? And th that in turn, do you think regulators have to do something, they have to take action. Ted O C, what you think?
Ted Orme-Claye (19:46.543)
Hmm, that's a very that's a tricky question I Think obviously yeah, you know, can't underestimate the power of the consumer I guess in that respect and their ability to to influence influence markets and influence products I Think though really I'm still of the opinion Sorry
I'm still of the opinion that think the main battleground for prediction markets and for their future is going to be in the US and the settlement of disputes between the CFTC, the Federal Regulator of Futures and Derivatives, tradings and so on in the US and
and the different state regulators that want to see predictions as a form of gambling and have been involved in litigation with calcium, polymarket and so on. I think really that's going to be the big battleground because the US is kind of like the home, you know, the homeland of the predictions is the birthplace of them. It's a big, big source of growth there. And I do think that with a potential change in US administration in the White House and a different, but we could see the CFTC become more standoffish to the predictions again, like they were under Joe Biden.
ted (20:54.28)
Mm-hmm.
Ted Orme-Claye (20:55.372)
and that could deal a pretty serious blow to them. There's also the argument as well in the US that some of the states we often see some of the most volume coming from are states where there isn't regulators betting and gaming yet. I do think there's a lot of regulator factors and lot of market factors that are still weighing against predictions in their long-term sustainability, think. Whether or not consumers want to go for them or not.
I know that's a bit of a different matter, but you could argue that maybe in Europe, we've already got lots of established betting markets here, many of which have products in that, know, the predictions also like politics betting, know, like in the UK, Betfair and so on has very extensive politics markets and in the US that's been some of the things that got a lot of attention that with predictions you could bet on politics, with regular sports books you can't. So, yeah.
ted (21:36.198)
Yeah.
Ted Orme-Claye (21:52.129)
not overly confident that consumers will flock to them here either, not in mass anyway. I in general, think, I'm sorry I'm rambling here a bit, I know I have tendency to do this. In general, predictions do, the other thing I will say for them may be more like, that might be a bit more...
Charlie Horner (22:23.373)
Mm-hmm.
Charlie Horner (22:32.983)
Sid, what do you think? Is it is this an American issue or or does do they have a a future in Europe and is that driven by the consumer?
ted (22:40.968)
Look, I agree with kind of the view that the consumer pushes the market and if prediction markets do grow in Europe, there is a case for kind regulatory intervention and to provide kind of clearance on prediction markets alone. Again, Ted's raised some fantastic points about...
you know, the obstacles that these platforms have to market and how very different its growth in the US is and it can't, it won't be going to be able to be replicated in Europe. Again, I think let's see what that kind of consumer demand is for that European betting is so different. Like Ted said, you know, you don't have these kinds of restrictions that you have in the US.
Also, I don't think that the profile of the prediction markets will be anywhere near as big as the sportsbooks that were already established in European markets. And also, there's a huge localization factor with individual consumers.
But again, this is a subject, it's a market that causes frictions and I think that at least there's a regulatory body or there is a jurisdiction that wants to begin to actually regulate these types of products. It should be welcome.
Charlie Horner (24:13.218)
Yeah, absolutely. I think it it should be welcome. And I think that's a good place to to leave it because this story will rumble on and on, both in Europe and North America, and we'll continue to bring you all the latest prediction market developments on iGaming Daily. But for now, Ted, Ted, thanks ever so much for joining me. Thanks to Optimu for supporting the show as always, and to our listeners, thank you for tuning in to today's episode of iGaming Daily and come back tomorrow to keep up to date with all the latest global gambling news.