CropGPT - Cocoa

The weekly report on the global Cocoa market for week 19. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

Global Cocoa Market Summary
  • Ivory Coast remains under significant stress, with 2025/26 production forecast to fall 10.8% to 1,650,000 metric tons as drought affects more than half the country. A 57% reduction in mid-crop farm gate prices threatens to suppress farmer investment and maintenance activity going forward. Cumulative shipments have edged up 0.7% year on year to 1,540,000 metric tons as of early May 2026, though the ongoing dry spell poses a direct threat to the mid-crop currently in progress.
  • Ghana is confronting both climatic and structural challenges simultaneously. Drought conditions now cover approximately two thirds of the country, while the government's state buying company has ceased cocoa purchases due to insolvency, shrinking its market share from around 30% to less than 5%. Official farm gate prices have been cut by nearly 30% for 2025/26, compressing farmer margins at a time when growing conditions are already deteriorating. The combined effect is expected to produce a material decline in harvest volumes.
  • Nigeria's near-term outlook is similarly constrained. February 2026 exports fell 4.6% year on year, and 2025/26 production is forecast to decline 11% to 385,000 metric tons. Reduced price incentives and rising input costs are the primary structural drivers, with global supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz adding further pressure.
  • At the global level, the supply picture is complicated by the anticipated intensification of El Nino through 2026, which carries additional downside risk for West African yields. Grinding data points to demand contraction in North America and Europe, though Asian processing activity has shown resilience. 

What is CropGPT - Cocoa?

Cocoa news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global cocoa market for 05/10/2026. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. Ivory Coast has been facing significant production challenges due to ongoing drought conditions affecting more than half its territory as of late March. This environmental stress has led to projections of a noticeable decline in cocoa yields, with the twenty twenty five-twenty six season expected to see a decrease of 10.8%, bringing production down to 1,650,000 metric tons. Additionally, there has been a substantial reduction in farm gate prices by 57% during the mid crop harvest.

Speaker 1:

This decline could further impact farmer motivation, potentially affecting future crop maintenance and harvest outcomes. Despite these challenges, cumulative shipments from the Ivory Coast have increased slightly by 0.7% year on year, totaling 1,540,000 metric tons as of early May twenty twenty six. However, the ongoing dry spells pose a serious threat to the mid crop currently underway. Turning to Ghana, the country is grappling with similar weather challenges, with drought conditions affecting approximately two thirds of its land. Besides these adversities, Ghana's cocoa sector is under severe economic pressure.

Speaker 1:

The government's producer buying company has ceased cocoa purchases due to insolvency, significantly reducing its market involvement from around 30% to less than 5%. In an attempt to alleviate fiscal difficulties, the Ghanaian government has decreased the official price paid to cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for the twenty twenty five-twenty six season, exacerbating the financial burdens on farmers. This financial strain, coupled with unfavorable growing conditions, is expected to lead to a significant decline in harvest volumes, aligning with the reduced payment structure. In Nigeria, the cocoa sector's near term production outlook is also bleak, hindered by both internal and external challenges. February 2026: Exports showed a year over year decline of 4.6%, with production for the twenty twenty five-twenty six season predicted to fall by 11% to 385,000 metric tons.

Speaker 1:

The declining production forecasts can be attributed to decreased incentives for farmers and rising input costs, exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions originating from the ongoing closure of the Strait Of Hormuz. From a global perspective, cocoa supply dynamics are being shaped by anticipated weather events such as El Nino, expected to intensify through 2026, which complicates supply outlooks due to its potential impact on West African yields. Despite these pressures, current market trends reflect high inventory levels, while grinding's data points to a contraction in major consumer markets in North America and Europe. However, there's a contrary trend in Asia, where demand appears resilient, evidenced by gains in regional processing activities. The overall supply concerns, combined with speculative trading activities, suggest a volatile market environment as stakeholders navigate through climatic and economic uncertainties.

Speaker 1:

In summary, while global cocoa futures have surged to multi month highs driven by technical trading patterns and speculative activities, fundamental challenges remain. These include weather related risks, reductions in farmer payments, and logistical disruptions, all of which pose significant threats to the sustainability and stability of future production across leading cocoa producing nations. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the cocoa market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.