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Every morning, in the time it takes to drink a coffee, Teddy walks through yesterday's markets: US indices, the Nikkei, gold, oil and Malaysia. What moved, and which way the pressure leans. Market education, not financial advice.
This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice.
Good morning. Teddy here.
Most people see a two percent up day and relax. I used to do the same. Years ago I added size after a relief rally. The next data print took back the whole week, and a piece of my account with it. So today I want to slow down and ask one question. What actually changed on Monday, and what didn't?
Let's start with what changed. Oil.
Brent crude closed at 92 dollars 91 cents a barrel. That's down 5.5 percent in one day. December WTI settled near 86 dollars 75. The trigger was Iran. President Trump said new strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" while talks are making progress. That took a chunk of fear out of the oil price.
But listen to the other side of the same story. Secretary of State Rubio said the talks are not near a breakthrough. Iran says it wants the US naval blockade lifted and sanctions removed first. So the discount on oil sits on top of headlines that can change in an hour. That's downward pressure on crude today, with a big asterisk next to it.
Cheaper oil fed straight into stocks. The Dow rose 1,104 points, about 2.15 percent, to 52,389. The S&P 500 gained 2.35 percent to 7,549. The Nasdaq Composite added 2.74 percent. And the Russell 2000, the small caps, led everything with 3.15 percent. The VIX, the fear gauge, dropped from about 25.6 to around 20. More than four thousand stocks rose. Only about twelve hundred fell. That's a wide rally, not a narrow one.
Now the second story. Chips.
Nvidia's board is investigating CEO Jensen Huang over a reported personal relationship with a Chinese-linked businesswoman. The board says it has no reason to believe company information was compromised. Nvidia still fell 4.27 percent, to 178 dollars 67.
Here's what's interesting. The rest of the sector went the other way. AMD rose 9.22 percent. Marvell rose about 9 percent. TSMC's US shares rose 6.33 percent. In Asia, Taiwan's Taiex jumped 4.9 percent on Monday. So the market treated this as a story about one person, not about the chips. That's two-way pressure on the Nasdaq. A new finding in the probe could turn a single-stock story into an index story very quickly. Nvidia reports results next Wednesday morning, Malaysia time.
The third story is the one that matters most today. US inflation.
The October consumer price index comes out tonight at 9:30 pm Malaysia time. Consensus is plus 0.3 percent month on month for the headline, down from 0.6 in September. Core is expected at plus 0.2 percent. Why does this matter so much? Because at the Fed's last meeting, on 28 October, rates were held at 3.75 to 4 percent, and two officials already wanted a hike. The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.86 percent. A hot core number adds weight to a December hike. A soft one eases it. That's two-way pressure, and the reliability is high. CPI almost always moves markets.
One timing point. Tonight's number lands after Asian markets close. So Bursa, the Nikkei and the Hang Seng only react on Wednesday.
Quick look around Asia. The Nikkei closed Monday at 58,775, up 2.33 percent, after falling about 6 percent on Friday. SoftBank fell 4.2 percent after China rejected its robotics deal with ABB. The Hang Seng was flat, down 0.1 percent. Bursa Malaysia was closed on Monday for the public holiday. It reopens at nine this morning, into a world where oil is a lot cheaper than when it last traded. Palm oil data from the MPOB is due today too.
Gold futures rose 1.71 percent to 4,144 dollars. Bitcoin is sitting near 75,000 dollars, under pressure from worries about tougher crypto rules after the midterms. Germany's DAX rose 1.73 percent.
Now let me step back. Monday's rally rested on two things. Cheaper oil, and a calmer VIX. Both can flip on a single headline. And the S&P 500 is still 3.35 percent lower than a month ago. A bounce feels like safety. It's often just a lower price for the same question.
So for today, three simple things. Check your candles, not the headlines. Know which direction the pressure points before 9:30 tonight. And watch whether momentum holds once the CPI is out. Size your risk before the number, not after.
This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss. Size your risk before any trade.
Survive first. See you tomorrow.