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Hedging the Bet with Gabe Sousa and Ben Julian is your go-to sports betting podcast, dropping every Friday to prep you for the weekend’s action. Each week, Gabe and Ben break down the top matchups across the world of sports—offering sharp analysis, expert picks, and all the insight you need to place your bets with confidence. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just looking for smart plays, Hedging the Bet is your winning edge!
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to this November 8 edition of the Hedging the Bet podcast. I am not alone today. Of course, I'm joined by my producer over there, the man and chair, the man behind computer. Clark Souza, how you doing today? And I'm looking very handsome as well.
Clark:I appreciate that. You know, I'm I'm doing alright. I just got off an exam that went pretty well. So, hopefully
Gabe:tonight, it's going to be a good football game. Okay. Yeah, sure. You know, ACNA exam recording a podcast and then watching Thursday night football. Not sure how the day can get any better than that.
Gabe:Well, we're gonna have a pretty entertaining episode today. Of course, it's our first one in a little bit here. I apologize on a bit of a hiatus but we're gonna go over a little fantasy rewind. We're gonna take a trip back to maybe August, late August when you're doing your fancy drafts and see what players we would take now if we had the information we had now, of course, about halfway through the season. We're going go over some my guys, some guys that consistently hit their bets, consistently win us money, consistently let us beat Vegas.
Gabe:Yes. If you will, of course, we're going to go over our DFS lineups for the week as we always do and then we're going to get into some betting strategies at the end. It should be a fun episode. We're going to start off with the Fantasy Rewind. We're going to go through the first round of draft and see what players we would take if we had the information that we knew now.
Gabe:Of course, Clark, if you had the first overall pick and you already knew, you've already seen halfway through this season, who would you take?
Clark:I'm going to be taking Christian McCaffrey. Okay. Christian McCaffrey at my one. He is the highest scoring fantasy performer throughout all position groups. Everywhere.
Clark:He is the highest scoring and you know, has he has a good strength of schedule for the rest of the season like, you know, it's not it's not crazy and I expect him just to do the same of what he's been doing. He's averaging, I believe it's 23 fantasy points again. And so, I just think that you have to take someone as consistent as that and my number two isn't too far off of him.
Gabe:Yeah, tell us, I'm assuming you have Jonathan Taylor next. Yes. Yep. Okay. Yeah.
Gabe:So, I I have those flipped. I do have Jonathan Taylor at my number one spot. Just kind of from what he's done so far this year and then his outlook as well. Of course, he's second in carries. He's first in overall touchdowns across the league and he has four hat tricks on the year.
Gabe:So, that's. That is impressive. That's pretty impressive but of course, Christian McCaffrey is not far behind. I believe that he's probably one of the most consistent players in the league and you know, he had one single digit week in standard scoring of course but other than that, it's 20s and 30s as far as the eye can see. So, there's no debates for me there.
Gabe:Those guys are pretty much one or two. Yeah. Let us know who you have at the third spot if you don't mind.
Clark:I don't know how controversial this is but I just really like this player and he's always been doing well for me on my fantasy team. It's going be Jackson Smith and Jake Bob.
Gabe:Okay. Yeah.
Clark:At number three. And another similar player in the next one I'm sure you have him as well. Jason's averaging 118 yards a game. Yep. He's he's going insane.
Clark:His I don't know his lowest scoring fantasy performance but I would imagine it's nothing less than about 13. Yep.
Gabe:Yep. There you go. Wow. Good guess there. That.
Gabe:Stats guy strikes once again.
Clark:Yes. So yeah. I think Jason is incredibly consistent. He's going he's guaranteed to get you at least 10 fantasy points just through the air. You know catching the ball.
Clark:And then on top of that is the amount of receptions he'll get. I think he's averaging probably around six receptions if I just had to take a guess and then, you know, just the touchdowns are a bonus for each week.
Gabe:Yeah, of course. So, I had actually JSN at my five spot. Oh. That's okay. It's not too far off.
Gabe:Clark, I believe you had him for offensive player of the year and a couple of bets and unfortunately, he would win most years but Jonathan Taylor does exist and his season he's putting together right now. I believe he's minus 200 somewhere around there to win right now. Still a lot of season left obviously. Players can get hurt and things happen but like Clark mentioned, he had his worst week was 13 points and that's not too bad for the wide receiver position. And in that game, the Seahawks try to get a little cute.
Gabe:They gave him three carries where he had 11 yards. How about let's just stick to what's working? Yeah. There's Seattle. Let's air that rock out.
Gabe:Sam Darnold's obviously been playing great football and that's a bit of a surprise to me to be honest. I thought it was kind of a one one year wonder with the Vikings but Sam Darnold's proving why he was the third overall pick. So, at my three spot, I had Jamar Chase. We thought that his season was going to be over when Joe Burrow went down. That was not the case.
Gabe:Instead, he's seeing double digit targets a week. Yeah. He's averaging 12.3 targets a week which is obviously something that you want to chase as a fantasy football player or a sports bettor chasing volume chasing targets is always a good thing. I'm going to move on to my number four if you don't mind, Puka Nakua, I have which might come as a surprise. He was down for so he was down for technically two weeks.
Gabe:Obviously, one of the weeks he had 4.8 fantasy points and that was, due to injury but he really only missed two if you want to count that game where he went out early. He had he did have a bye week which is fortunate that if a player is going to get hurt that their bye week is during his absence. If you drop that one week he got hurt, he's averaging almost 25 fancy points in a full PPR format. And you want his his schedule remaining. It's funny for the wide receiver position.
Gabe:You want teams that are going to be in a losing spot or in a close games because obviously they'll have to continue to air the rock out. The Rams have to play the 40. They had to play Tampa Bay. They had to play Seattle twice for the remainder of the year. Those should be both great games and then laugh all you want but they have the Carolina Panthers on their schedule and the Panthers are sneaky five for the Panthers have a winning record this year of course.
Gabe:Shout out to Bryce Young. Clark, who do you have at your four spot?
Clark:Yeah. So, you're going to see like I I picked 10 for the first redraft. I didn't know if you did 12. Okay, I did 12 but that's okay. I did 10.
Clark:And so, you'll see consistently through these 10 picks is that I'm always going to pick the player that's more consistent first. Yes. And then the little inconsistency second. So, for example, I took CMC first and then Jay Jonathan Taylor, he had one bad game. So, I put him second.
Clark:JSN, same thing. He's been consistent and then it's Jamar Chase at my number four because at the start of the season, Jamar Chase didn't know what the hell he was doing. He's, that's just a consistent thing every single week. And so I put Jamar Chase at my number four because of that starting out. You don't want, you know, you don't want your number one pick or your, sorry, round one pick to be a dud, right?
Clark:And so naturally, it's going to sell you at least, know, two to three fantasy game weeks if you don't have a good enough roster around him and so, I put Jamar JZF four. I mean, all the reasons why you said, I mean, he's a great receiver. I just because of that inconsistency, I have to put him below JSN.
Gabe:Okay. Yeah and then, who is your fist spot?
Clark:Fist spot is so, I'll tell you right now, it's not Puka Nakua. Puka Nakua, like I said, inconsistency. Okay. Injuries. Yeah.
Clark:He He dropped for me but five for me is H hand. He. Okay. He you know, worst week is 16. One.
Clark:Fantasy points. Yeah. Which is shocking when you look at how poor the Dolphins have. Right. Performed this season.
Clark:And so even with such a poor performance, HN is putting up more numbers than I think anyone would have expected. He's the number three and for me, the number three running back on the season right now. Yep. But he's not
Gabe:far ahead of mine. Yeah. He's he's you know, he's a dime in the rough on that struggling team right now. Jalen Waddle has stepped up entire Hill's absence as well but like you mentioned, his worst week is 16 PPR fancy points and he's a consistent player and he's going to continue to get large amount of works as the season goes on because the Dolphins are going to need him. They're going be in a losing spot.
Gabe:They're playing the Bills this week. Do you think he's going to farm a lot of check downs? I think so. He's going to just continue. Continue to be in a negative game script.
Gabe:Well, I'm going to continue on here. At my number six spot because at number five, hit JSN. Members, number six spot is Bijan Robinson. He's kind of a similar story to the Dolphins honestly. Both teams have been struggling but they're running backs, they're receiving backs have been the diamond in the rough.
Gabe:He had one back week against who? The Miami Dolphins of course, right? It's funny how that works but Michael Penix was out that week. When Penix plays his worst performance was also 16 fantasy points. So, Bijan and HN are very similar running backs.
Gabe:So, I have them kind of in that six, seven, eight range. If you would allow that, who do you have in your seventh spot? I'm curious to learn.
Clark:Well, six was Bijan. Yes. I had the same there and then seven is Amin Ross Saint Okay.
Gabe:I also have Amon Ross Saint Brown. I'm assuming we have similar regions. There's a lot of mouths to feed on that offense right now but Saint Brown is standing out by far between all of them. His worst week was week one against the Green Bay Packers.
Clark:Yep.
Gabe:And so the Lions offense is currently struggling but he is, like I said, standing out in that group.
Clark:Yep. I I 100 agree and I would also go as far as to argue and I will bring this up a
Gabe:little bit later in the podcast but that this week against the Commanders, he could have a big big week. I absolutely agree that that Lions offense could have a great week against Commanders for this week. We'll touch on that in our DFS lineups. I'm sure a little bit later but moving on to my ninth spot, I actually have Josh Jacobs. You're, wait, did we skip eight?
Gabe:Sorry. Did we skip eight? Oh, sorry. I had Davonna Chan at my eight. We already talked about him.
Gabe:Do you have, who do you have at your eight? Josh Jacobs. Alright. So, we're going talk about Josh Jacobs then. He's been sneaky good this year.
Gabe:It feels like a lot. Not a lot of people are talking about Josh Jacobs. There's a lot of great running backs this year. Yep. They're getting the job done.
Gabe:He's the RB five despite having his bye week already.
Clark:That is actually really impressive too. Think of that. Bijan is the only other running back I'd imagine that has, oh and McCaffrey. So, I guess a couple running backs but all power workhorses, you know, I mean, they're they're absolutely going at it. So, I, you know what?
Clark:If you if you're a good running back with a bye week already and you're top of the charts, then, you're doing something right.
Gabe:And potential trade targets, of course, if you have these players that are performing, they're not being talked about a lot. Target them. If they already have their buy week, that's a good thing to trade for because you don't have to worry about obviously besides injury, the missing a week for the rest of the year. Yep. Okay.
Gabe:So, moving on, we'll we'll just do 10 here because I know that you only did 10. So, I actually have three Cowboys. Believe it or not.
Clark:Three Cowboys all at the 10? Interchangeable?
Gabe:Well, I had ten, eleven, 12. Oh, I got you. And it's three Cowboys and it's shocking to say but it actually makes sense if you think about it. Obviously, that Cowboys defense is struggling a lot. That offense has to continue to play the entire game against any opponent that they face.
Gabe:So, at number 10, had George Pickens actually. We thought that CD Land would be the number one option but he has a great connection with sorry, Dak has a great connection with George Pickens right now. He's a bit boomer bust which is why he's not higher on the list. He's wide receiver five right now and he has some low double digit point weeks in full PPR format, but he has two thirty point weeks on the year over the past couple weeks, especially George Pickens has stood out in that offense on being great. Next up, very next, I had CeeDee Lamb.
Gabe:The Cowboys defense, I said, the Cowboys defense is so bad. They had to pass the ball to the very end of the game. Wow. Myself yesterday and now had the same exact thought. That's great.
Gabe:But yeah, Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson are all feeding right now, of course, but you know who else is feeding. I think one of the biggest deals of the draft right now, Javonte Williams. Yes. Running back for the Dallas Cowboys. He's another great or good sneaky running back this year, of course, with Josh Jacobs and his only downside is that when the Cowboys are down a lot, he does suffer a little bit because he doesn't get as much rushing attempts but he does still get some work in the passing game and he is sneaky seven touchdowns through nine weeks.
Gabe:Yeah, you know, I I wouldn't for my list, I don't agree but I will say he they are in
Clark:my second round for sure. Yeah. Yep. I just, the only reason why I don't put him in my first is because of the inconsistency with George Beckins. You know, he has boomer.
Clark:He's either boomer bust. Yeah. He's not necessarily consistent. CD Lam, he was out for I believe two or three weeks.
Gabe:Yes.
Clark:Yes. So, that would scare me.
Gabe:I will say, I will say the injuries have sucked for C Lam but when he has played, he's been very good.
Clark:Yeah. Yeah. But you know, say I knew this at the start of the season. I wouldn't necessarily want to draft CD Lam knowing that he'd out three weeks. Obviously, you can plan around it but whatever.
Clark:And then George Pickens, we don't actually know because George Pickens boom weeks, I I don't actually know the stats but I would imagine that's when CD Lamb was out. At least he would have, it would make sense for him to have a boosted target amount of targets there. So, that's why I'm like, I don't know how George Pickens is now that CD Lamb is back for the past two weeks. I don't know how he did and I don't know how he will do in the future and then Javonte Williams, he didn't necessarily go off the first two weeks or three weeks.
Gabe:What was it? No, the first week he had two touchdowns against the Eagles.
Clark:Okay. So, never mind. Maybe Javonte Williams could, I could have put in my top 10. And in fact, I might actually do that and at number nine, I had James Cook. Yes.
Clark:I I there's not really. He's just consistent. You know, I don't know what his lowest week was but he in I believe he's played nine weeks. I don't think. Yeah.
Clark:The Bills have had a buy yet and six of those weeks, he's had at least 20 fantasy points. So. Good. Naturally, a high scoring running back and I'm always running back heavy. In my top 10 for a redraft, I have one, two, three, four, five, six running backs.
Clark:So, I I prefer a running back over a receiver. Yeah. Start of the draft but at number 10, I hinted at this earlier. It's Puka Nakua. Yeah.
Clark:For the reasons that he he was injured. We don't know. He got reinjured last game. Yeah. After putting up a great performance already but you know, I don't know if that injury is going to or injuries will be reoccurring this season.
Clark:That would have me hesitant but when he's on the field, he's absolutely.
Gabe:It's that's that's that's so that's unlike CD Lamb where Puko's so good. You can't, it's hard to like you want to overlook the injuries. Yeah. Because when he's on the field playing, he's great. Yeah.
Clark:And I would also go as far as to argue you know, if you maybe you don't want him because of you're worried about the injury but you draft him and you can probably get someone else that you might like farther into the season. You know, if you trade him, right? So, I I think Puka Nakua even if you didn't want him because of injury risk, I'm sure someone else does
Gabe:and you could trade for some good value. Of course. So, that was our redraft for the first 10 picks of the year. Obviously, we had some disagreements but for the most part, we had the same players just in different spots throughout the top 10. Moving on now, we're gonna get into a my guy segment.
Gabe:We're gonna go over some players that consistently cover their lines and win betters money. Clark, do you mind starting off?
Clark:Oh, I don't mind at all. This player, I have said multiple times already. This podcast and I have outside of this podcast said, millions of times more and like Gabe said, I did pick him in week two at plus 2,000 odds to be offensive player of the year. JSN, he's averaging eight one hundred and eighteen yards a game and his line has only gone up. He's only missed his receiving line one time and that was that 76 yard game where like Gabe said, he that he they CX try to get cute but at the end of the day, when Sam Darn was airing out that rock, JSN has hit the over every single week.
Clark:Eight, okay. So, he's played eight games this year. Out of the eight games, he has gone over 100 yards, six times. Over 90 yards, seven times, and then has that one game at 79 yards. So, you know, if you want to take a alternate receiving line at 100, he's hit it 75% of the time.
Clark:That's not a bad look or even is it eighty eighty two. 5% of the time take 90 plus receiving yards. This week, he's going against the Cardinals and he's at 93 and a half. I would take that over
Gabe:for sure. Yeah, great quick maths in your head there as well. Love and have the loving having a stats guy behind the camera. So, I wanna look at players who have hit 70% of their props over the last seven games. Sure.
Gabe:Okay. So, here are the three players that I was able to identify and some of them might surprise you. Obviously, Brock Purdy, he said injuries issues but he's hit over his passing touchdown props in the last. He's hit over 70% of the time in the past seven games. When he gets back on the field, if he does because Mac Jones has been playing very well but Wayne Brock pretty is healthy again.
Gabe:Obviously, I'll be looking at his over for passing touchdowns. This one's gonna be surprising. David Montgomery rushing yards actually. He's hit over 70% of the time in the last seven games and you're probably thinking, how is that possible? Well, his line keeps getting lower and lower and lower because Jamere Gibbs is taking more of a workload and to begin the year, it was assumed that the lines would struggle because they're playing better opponents.
Gabe:However, that's not the case that we've seen. Some teams that the lines have played have had injuries to the quarterback position of course and also the Lions have won games that they probably shouldn't have like including Baltimore where who? David Montgomery had 170 rushing yards or whatever
Clark:it was. Yep.
Gabe:So, David Montgomery could be a sneaky pick for rushing yards especially against this commander's team which we're going to talk about in our DFS lineups very soon and then, this is a guy just like you, my guy this year, Javonte Williams rushing attempts. He's hit over in 70% or he's hit in the last seven games. He's hit over 70% of the time. It's kind of surprising because to start the year, they thought that this was going to be kind of a split backfield with Jaden Blue. Obviously, it's not the case.
Gabe:Fonte has been playing very well. And then since the Cowboys defense hasn't been great, they're expecting the Cowboys to pass the ball more, but they've been so his his line has been lower and lower and lower just like David Montgomery's, but Javonte Williams has he's continued to run the ball and even late into games, the Cowboys are not afraid to do that. Should they be doing that? Probably not but it wins us money. So, that's all I care about.
Gabe:So, Brock Purdy overpassing touchdowns when he plays. David Montgomery over rushing yards when he plays and Javonte Williams over passing or sorry, rushing attempts when he plays. Those are my three guys. You have JSN as well.
Clark:And I actually, I have one more.
Gabe:Oh, of course you have one more. Please let us
Clark:know. It's not actually anything crazy. I would imagine it's probably minus 400 odds every single week but it's a safe bet that, you know, there's no locks in sports betting but let's be honest. If I'm being honest with you, he's hit it 100% of the weeks, alright? Drake May over 200 passing yards.
Clark:You, he has not missed. His lowest was two zero three against the Panthers but if I'm being honest with you, the Panthers just are a little stingy. I'll take Drake May 200 passing yards every single week from here on out. That
Gabe:division. The Bills defense has been disappointing. To say the least. But the Bills still have a great offense. The Patriots when they play the Bills will most likely be down or in a close game.
Gabe:Drake May will continue to pass the ball. Miami's defense, not good. Like. Correct. Like, very, very much not good.
Gabe:So, so, Drake May, if he gets his passing yards, the majority of it would have to be in the first half. You'd expect him to have at least 150 yards in the first half against that defense. And then look at the New York Jets. They just straight away, they're two cornerstone defensive players. That's more barbecue chicken for Drake made to throw.
Gabe:I love that that you brought that up. If you bet, you know, let's say it's minus 400 odds, minus 500 odds, you bet $50 and you win, I don't know, let's say. It's like 10 or 5. Yeah, $10. I mean, if you saw $10 on the ground, would you pick it up?
Clark:Yeah. Exactly. Okay. Not exactly betting advice for the record. I mean, it's betting advice but maybe don't use that terminology every single time you place a watch.
Clark:You'll have four
Gabe:interceptions and like 162 passing yards this week. Oh. Of course, Drake May has been great. Dark horse MVP candidate might I add. Yes.
Gabe:Yep. Alright. So, we're going move on to our DFS lineup and this is This one's an interesting week. There's a lot of players at the running back position specifically that I didn't really know who to go with but we'll start off with quarterbacks of course as we always do. I took my man Jackson Dart, 5,700.
Gabe:I feel like he's going to be a high volume play this week. He's against the thirtieth ranked Bears defense. Of course, if Joe Flacco, 41 years old, 40 years old maybe can throw for his career high passing yards against that Bears defense last week. Sorry, I almost said Drake May. He's just in my head right now.
Gabe:Jackson Dart can certainly do have a career day as well even in his young career. He's been great. Dollars 5,700. Might be played a lot this week but I want Dart Clerk to who do you have over there?
Clark:So, I'll be honest here. This lineup, I struggled with, same as you with the running backs. Running backs but also because. 20, 21
Gabe:years old, still, that's still going on.
Clark:Alright. But also because there were players that I really wanted but couldn't afford. Yep. I wanted Jared Goff. I wanted Jared Goff for the stack later.
Clark:But I couldn't afford him. So I went with someone probably my sworn enemy, JJ McCarthy at 4,900 because he was incredibly cheap and he's going against a Baltimore defense that has
Gabe:only performed poorly. Yeah, the game's at home as well, right? Yes. Yeah, it's a good play.
Clark:And if JJ McCarthy can throw up two passing touchdowns with only 143 passing yards, I'd imagine that he can do the more passing yards and the same passing touchdowns or more against the Baltimore defense. So, I took a very cheap JJ McCarthy.
Gabe:Yeah, know. Make sense for sure. Two mobile quarterbacks out of the Sousa Fellas here. Always love to see that. Moving on to the running back group, I took Devonna Chan.
Gabe:I hinted at this earlier. So, the Bills are twenty sixth ranked against the running back position of course but is a chance even really running back at this point. It's basically wide receiver two, maybe three if Malik Washington continues to step up. Of course, but his volume is unreal and he's gonna farm check downs. They're gonna be a negative game script.
Gabe:A chance seemed like a no doubt play to me at 7,400. Then, I have someone who's very scary but I actually took Rico Dowdle. So, I've been on a bit of a roller coaster with Rico Dowdle recently. He was he was very good in in Chuba Hubbard's absence of course. He had seemed like he was averaging about high twenties, low thirties, fancy points in those three, four game stretch but when Hubbard came back, Dowdle only got five fancy points and then and then all Dowdle owners shipped that guy right to the bench and then they watched as Dowdle continued to have 31.1 Fantasy Points in a full PPR format of course and I do have the Kahunas, Kahunas, Kahunas to start him this week.
Gabe:Shut up Bert Peanut of course. Both running backs are going to play well against they're taking on the Saints and I will say Rico did not practice Wednesday. We do not have the Thursday which is when we're recording this report as of yet. If Dowell does not play Chuba Hubbard, it's less expensive. Just put him right into your
Clark:line
Gabe:up.
Clark:Sure. Okay. So, for my two running backs, you know, I took the other side of that Bills Miami game. I went with James Cook. That makes sense to me.
Clark:Not much to elaborate there, you know, if if the game script is how we're expecting it, they're going to be up early and probably running the ball. He might get a garbage time touchdown. Who knows? But that's James Cook for you. A 7,500.
Clark:Was kind of expensive. I'm being honest but I I think it's it's going be worth it. And then the next one, you know, I I almost every single week, I target the Jets in some fashion with whatever players going against them and this week, I did take Quinshawn Judkins at 6,500. I looked at him. He, you know, he's he's I don't know what his fancy points per game is.
Gabe:It's up or down. It's very up and down. Last week, he had this point of week but then two weeks ago, he had 30 burgers so.
Clark:Yeah. Yeah and so, I'm just, you know, maybe praying but I I have a good feeling that, know, Quitting on Jutskins against the weak Jets defense especially with no Sauce Gardner now. I have no clue how that's going to work out for the Jets.
Gabe:No Sauce Gardner who did struggle with tackling by the way but no Quinn Williams of course either.
Clark:So, I don't even know. Do you know, do you think they'd air out like Jerry Judy will get a better performance now or do you think it's just going to be Quenchon Jenkins Central?
Gabe:Like, I think I probably won't watch that game to be honest with you. Fair enough. Browns versus Jets but no, yeah, that's that's a smart play. Obviously, the Jets are in full rebuild mode right now. Their defense is obviously not going to perform as well.
Gabe:Who knows? Maybe they'll have a bit of a legion of whom themselves with a bunch of guys trying to prove themselves with Sauce Gardner and Quinn Williams absence of course but those were two plays. What was his price again for Jookins?
Clark:Oh, yeah. Jookins was 6,500.
Gabe:Yes, that's right. You said that. I just want to make sure. Okay, moving on to wide receiver group if you don't mind. I do have Deebo Samuel here at $5,600 Terry McLaurin is not going to play this week.
Gabe:It looks like. Okay. And I don't care who the quarterback for is for the Commanders. At some point in the game, they will have to pass the ball, believe it or not. I don't think it's a rule in the NFL that you do have to pass the ball but I think teams usually typically will throw the ball at least one time per game.
Gabe:As long as that one time is to Debo Samuel for a touchdown, it's gonna pay off, right? So, they obviously have struggles right now with their offense. Their running back room is a bit disappointing. Bill, I love him but he hasn't been playing great and then Chris Rodriguez has been okay. Debo Samuel is going get a lot of work on the ground and have to get work through the air.
Gabe:Love that pick at $5,600 then, I have someone. You want to talk about Boomer Bust players? I have Jameson Williams this week. Wow. At 4,900.
Gabe:Wow. And I'm hoping that the stars are kind of going to align in are they in are they in the DMV? I think. Yeah. Wait, what?
Gabe:The commanders.
Clark:Is it called the DMV?
Gabe:Yeah, like the but you know the DMV of course, like the capital, like Washington DC, like that area?
Clark:Yeah, I just always knew the DMV is like the place you go like.
Gabe:Alright, so Clark is, Clark is more of the no numbers guy.
Clark:Of course, DMV is like Secretary of State.
Gabe:I'm looking it up. DMV.
Clark:You mean like DC?
Gabe:Location. No, they call it the DMV. Don't have WiFi. Shout out MSU guest network of course. We'll we'll get on that at some point.
Gabe:I'll figure it out but I believe. Maybe I'm maybe I'm a. I I believe they call it the DMV. We'll have to back check that. Regardless, Jameson Williams, let's talk about him.
Gabe:Been disappointing this year of course. Shout out our buddy Hunter Frank who decided to draft him this year and then end up shipping him off, right? But he's been disappointing for him and I think the stars going to align in the DMV this week of course. He is playing against a twenty seventh ranked commander's defense but that rank is not very accurate to how that team is playing. That might be a reflection of how they started the year but as of the past five weeks, they looked like one of the worst, if not the worst secondary in the league.
Gabe:There's how many guys scored last week that you didn't know their name for the Seahawks? I mean, that.
Clark:Oh, I do know. Oh, shoot. Aerio. I do know Aerio because I I I bet on him as well as partner. I bet on partners.
Clark:So, guess what?
Gabe:That named Cody White, Spartan Dog. Only reason why I knew who he was scored last night. That was his first catch on the year, 60 yards to the cribs. So, shout out to Cody White of course but a lot of players got a lot of work in against that commander's defense of course with Jane Daniels being out and you would assume Marcus Mariota will start that game. It's going to be barbecue chicken.
Gabe:I think I'm hoping that John Moran realized last week after Jameson Williams got that long touchdown. He was like, oh, wait a minute.
Clark:Yeah, maybe we should.
Gabe:Wait, hold on. Let's, wait, wait, wait a minute. I forgot we had this guy. Yeah. So, I'm hoping that JMO can get a stat line something close to four catches, 80 yards on a long and a long touchdown as well.
Gabe:I'd be happy. He's only $4,900 and then of course, Jackson Smith and Jig Buzz in my lineup this week. Yeah. Dollars 8,600. My only note I have here is he is good at football.
Gabe:Clark, who are your wide receivers this week?
Clark:Yeah. So, I'll I'll start off by saying, I really wanted to put JSN in my lineup. I really did but I was building my lineup and originally had Jared Goff in there and so I was like, alright, I'm going to put the stack in. So, my first wide receiver is Saint Brown. Yep.
Clark:And you know what? Very similar player. Yeah. If you look at build, they're both both the slot receiver, both run the same routes. I mean, they're very similar.
Gabe:Jason's is a bit of more of a downfield threat but Saint Brown has a high higher like target share. Sure. So, yeah.
Clark:And you know, Jason somehow miraculously did not find the end zone last week but he had, I believe, 126 or 129 yards against the Washington defense and if you look at Saint Brown who is a very similar, at least in my opinion, receiver, just like in production and value and how he's being played. Well, he's going against the same team now this week and so I think that Saint Brown will do exactly what Jayson did and I think I can see him getting in the end zone this time as well. Of course, yeah. Of course, the DMV is usually used when referring to the Washington DC Metropolitan Area. So, Gabe Sue says, do you know what V stands for?
Clark:Just out of curiosity.
Gabe:I I don't. Oh. Oh. DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Oh.
Gabe:Of course.
Clark:So, it's like the area. I gotcha.
Gabe:That's why we talk about sports betting but not geography on this podcast of course.
Clark:I'm not a geography major at all.
Gabe:More of a stats guy. That was
Clark:the one subject I disliked. Okay. So, for the other two receivers, I went with Crystal Lave. Oh, sorry. Sorry.
Clark:Saint Brown was at 8,400. Yep. Chris Olave at 6,200. That's bold, man. Look, alright.
Clark:They're going against Carolina and Carolina's been stingy, alright? Carolina has, I think, surprised a lot of people. A very sneaky surprise too. I don't think anybody's talking about the fact that Carolina.
Gabe:They haven't jumped scared yet but they're in the closet right now waiting to talk about it. Sure.
Clark:I mean, they're they're over 500. Yep. After nine weeks.
Gabe:5 and four.
Clark:Yeah, that's I don't think anyone had that. On their bingo card. Sure. At all. So.
Clark:Showed your book. Naturally, Carolina is a little, you know, I'm a little afraid of it but as of what is it? What is today? The sixth? Sixth, yeah.
Clark:As of two days ago, there is no longer a Rashid Shaheed on the offense. I would imagine Chris Olave is going to get it. He already is averaging a ton of targets. I believe he's over 10 targets. Or somewhere around there.
Clark:I'd imagine that it's not going to decrease. Let's just say that with Shahid gone. Is it Shug? Show? Show?
Clark:Tyler Show. Show. He's going to put on a show and. Is he? Sorry.
Clark:And throw to Chris Olave at least 15 times. I'd imagine that Chris Olave will have himself a game.
Gabe:If if Tyler Show passes to Lave 15 times, what do you think? Probably like, what, three of them will be on target, four of them will be on target. Who knows?
Clark:But I I am faithful, alright? And then for the third one, this is the actual stack I I managed to pull off because Saint Brown and golf couldn't happen. I took Jordan Addison and JJ McCarthy. Yes. I like that.
Clark:I was looking at Jordan. Yeah.
Gabe:I was looking at him this week. Yeah. He's he's a good play at home versus a not good passing defense. Yep.
Clark:And you know, JJ McCarthy, his first passing touchdown attempt. So, like someone that would probably put it in the end zone if he pass it, if they pass connected was Jordan Addison last week. Just Jordan S, it was just slightly off. You know, I I don't I whose don't fault it was. I'm not going blame anyone.
Clark:It just, you know, wasn't wasn't.
Gabe:McCarthy if I had to guess.
Clark:But I would imagine that Jordan Addison will find the end zone this week. I might even take him for a touchdown bet. Here we go. I I think that against, you know, like like we said before when I was talking about JJ McCarthy, this Baltimore defense isn't exactly top of the line and I think JJ McCarthy will need will be throwing it out more. That means more yards to receivers.
Clark:And you know, obviously, Justin Jefferson will have himself a day but for the cheaper and more efficient pick, I think Jordan Addison will have himself also a day.
Gabe:Of course and I had pretty much the same logic in picking Jameson Williams where I think most most of the offensive weapons on this team will eat going against this poor defense. So that's kind of the same thought process you have there. Okay, so moving on to the tight end spot. This is where I kind of had to save some money unfortunately. Mason Taylor.
Gabe:Wow. He is thirty two hundred. He's a boom or bust tight end for sure but over the past two weeks, he's averaged six. Five receptions.
Clark:Oh. So, thought you're going to save fantasy points. I'm like, oh.
Gabe:Yeah. Yeah. You know what? I'm sorry. That can't be right.
Gabe:That has to be targets. Six. Targets? Yeah. There's no way this guy's averaging six.
Gabe:Five receptions over
Clark:the past two weeks. He'd be he'd be higher up on
Gabe:the list. Yeah, probably. So, that's most likely targets. That's on me but he's getting he's getting a lot of looks that Jets team is not one that usually wanna put US currency on but $3,200 it's pretty good value and if he has poor performance which seems to be maybe likely here unfortunately. I'm hoping some of my other guys I paid up for like GSN will make up for that.
Clark:Yeah. Okay. So, that that, you know, that's not or not invalid logic. My valid logic is that for $200 more, you can get Mark Andrews.
Gabe:Yeah. Yeah.
Clark:I don't know if you had $200 to spare but that's the guy I went with. You know, it's I'll I'll put it this way. Mark Andrews had two touchdowns last week against Miami. I can't say he's going to do that again. I would imagine he can do that again though because of how La Porta performed last week with 97 yards.
Clark:I believe it's it was six or seven receptions. Yeah. And a touchdown. Great game from La Porta against Minnesota. I would imagine that Mark Andrews can do the same.
Clark:Literally the only thing that might be in the way is Isaiah Likely. I I.
Gabe:What was what was that Isaiah Likely jump scare last year? Like, what happened? Like, Mark Andrew. I I was part of that. Mark Andrews.
Gabe:Last year. Mark Andrews is great for what? Like, five or six years, whatever and then for some reason, Isaiah likely just takes over for like what seven weeks or whatever and and then it's been Mark Andrews ever since Isaiah likely has been hurt but he's been back for the past two weeks. He hasn't done anything. So, Mark Andrews is a great pick.
Gabe:Sure. Actually, I
Clark:have a question for you. This is kind of off topic. Sure. I have Chris Olave in my lineup and Amica Agbuca was $300 more. I don't think I can afford him.
Clark:Who would you rather take? If if you had stats in front of you.
Gabe:Abuka in the first four weeks, I believe did not have less than 20 fantasy points.
Clark:I believe, yeah. I think he averaged around 28.
Gabe:I believe Abuka in the past four weeks in standard scoring has had single digit fancy points.
Clark:Yes, he against the Lions, he was about six. I I I don't remember the exact numbers and then the other one most recently against Carolina, I believe, he had eight maybe?
Gabe:Yeah. And then. Yeah. It's been, it hasn't been boom or bust. It's been consistent boom and then consistent bust.
Gabe:So, this week feels like a tie breaker for that maybe. Maybe he's gonna take a step up. I would take Chris Olave just because of Shaheed's absence. He's gonna have to get the ball more. Someone I wanna talk about too.
Gabe:This is off topic. If you're off topic but Taysom Hill might be something to look at for the tight end position. He actually did pass the ball a couple times last week and wish he being gone. They might have to use him more but I would I would probably say a Lave. Although, that's that's a scary thing to decide of.
Gabe:If you ask me that question like week three, I'd be like, you're out of your mind.
Clark:Right. Yeah. But now we're week. I, this is week 10. Wow.
Clark:Yeah. Yeah. Flying by. Decisions are have to be made a little differently now.
Gabe:Of course. So, my decision for the FlexSpot is Jacoby Myers If. Wow. 4,800. Wow.
Clark:And. That's expensive too. Yeah. Because that was his price when he was on the Raiders. They didn't change the price.
Gabe:Of course. After the trade. So, obviously, was going to look at Trey Tucker but he is playing tonight and we'll see how Trey Tucker does with Jacoby Myers being gone. This is obviously being record, recorded before the Thursday night game but Brian Thomas Junior most likely will not play this week and that's the key. I I'm hoping that BTJ doesn't somehow repair every bone in his body and play this week.
Gabe:I am not sure what his injury is. Of course, he did not break any bones, but, it is stated that he most likely will not suit up this week according to the Jaguar staff and in the same breath, they complimented Kobe Myers saying he is a superpower to quote, not drop the ball. So.
Clark:That's great. And can you remind me because I am, my ball knowledge on the Jaguars is not exactly. Sure. Amazing. Is Travis Hunter injured?
Clark:No.
Gabe:Yes. You already said, sorry. I I thought you're going say he's playing. He is injured. He's out for a minimum of three more weeks, I
Clark:believe. Okay. Alright.
Gabe:So, so, well, you're starting to see the Jacobi, you're starting to see that. Yeah. Can see it. Yeah. I'm just going move on to my defense real quick.
Gabe:I have the Panthers at 3,500. I bet I bet that at least 75% of people in the pool will have the Panthers this week. So.
Clark:I should know this. Where who are they going against? Saints. Oh yeah. I I.
Clark:Yeah. See? No. I had it written down. I just, you know, lack of ball knowledge, I guess.
Gabe:Sure. That's twice in the the same minute we've had a lack of ball knowledge here so.
Clark:Yeah. So, my flex position, this one was just I, you know, I I had picked everything else already. It was the last one I picked is my flex position and I had 5,100 left and I went in the Zach Chardonnay. Yeah. And this is only because I I don't know who's the coaching staff over there but they don't exactly like to get.
Gabe:This is only because the Seahawks hate Kenneth Walker for
Clark:some reason. This is absolutely because they don't like or maybe maybe they don't dislike him but maybe they just like him away from the end zone. So, think Zach Chardonnay against the Arizona Cardinals division opponent. I'd imagine that they'll be at least within five yards of the goal line no less than three times and I would imagine at least one time Zach Sherman will find that end zone. And then for the defense, this is literally just dirt cheap and this is because Davis Mills is playing.
Clark:I'm going with Jaguars defense. Yeah. I think that, you know, Jaguars have performed decent. I I can't say that. Whatever.
Clark:Amazing but I think that it over the season, they're averaging like six. Eight fantasy points this season which is an amazing. Yeah. But.
Gabe:But battle line combined with the longest neck in football with Davis Mills. Yeah.
Clark:But at $2,600, I, you're not expecting the defense to do amazing. So, a 10 fantasy point performance is a boom for me and for $2,600, that's a steal.
Gabe:Great value pick. Alright, we're gonna recap our lineups real quick then and we're gonna move on to our betting advice segment. So, at my quarterback, have Jackson Dart, of course, 5,700. Running backs, I have Devon, Achan, and Rico Dowdle. If Dowdle does not play, please sub in Chuba Hubbard this week.
Gabe:Achan at $7,400 and Dowdle at $6,300 Wide receiver spot Debo Samuel 56. Jackson Smith and Jigbo $8,600 Expensive boy there. Jameson Williams 4,900 chasing that deep bomb touchdown. Please John Warren make that happen. Mason Taylor at my tight end spot $3,200 My Flex Jacoby Myers and his brand new team with Jacksonville.
Gabe:Hopefully, he's going to pop off 4,800 again and then defense special teams Panthers are going to shut down the Saints this week.
Clark:Alright, I have JJ McCarthy for the QB. James Cook or JJ J. McCarthy at 4,900. James Cook at 75. Quenchon Juggins at 65.
Clark:For my wide receivers, I have Jordan Addison at 54, Chris Olave at 62, and Saint Brown at 84. Mhmm. I've got Mark Andrews for my tight end at 3,400. Zach Charminette at fifty one fifty one hundred at my flex and then Jaguars defense at 2,600.
Gabe:Sounds good to me. So, are our DFS lineups this week. Obviously, we'll track to see how they do. Hopefully, we're gonna win that milling maker this week. Of course, that would be a great way to spend a Sunday afternoon.
Gabe:We're gonna move on to our betting strategy real quick. This is a new segment and we're gonna talk about ways that you can either make your Smets Bart or Smets smarter, of course is what I meant to say there or minimize your losses. So, I'm going to start us off. I have a couple ones here. I think that people need to start increasing the percentage of plays they have on singles bets.
Gabe:Now, what do I mean by that? Most people, your average sports better will place a parlay, right? Because they don't wanna bet $5 and when, you know, 9, right? Or when $4 I mean, off of that, they wanna win 25, right? They're like, they're like, oh, if we just put these three that should happen together, it's going to win me more money.
Gabe:Well, that usually isn't the case. Sportsbooks make most of their money off of parlays because people do their research. They put three conservative lines like, okay, well, this guy, this guy's averaging 50. I'm to put him get him to take 25, you know, and then they're going to you take like stuff that should happen but the odds are if four things should happen, one of them won't, right? And that's how the sports books and Vegas make their money.
Gabe:So, I implore you guys, please look at singles bets. You know, if you're going to do research, just place, you know, place a bet on a single prop. Don't continue to do parlays. You're obviously allowed to do some because they, you know, parlays will hit every now and then but please, I implore you to take more singles bets. Clark, what is your first strategy?
Gabe:Yeah.
Clark:Yeah. So, I'm going to pick you up back off of what you just said there and I'm going to say that, you know, you shouldn't do or make parlays with more than three legs because of that and so, I had that in my notes as well as just like, you know, keep it to a minimum and ultimately, when you have at no more than three legs, it's most likely not going to be more than plus 400 odds if I had to just take a guess on what you pick. And that's assuming that you take lines. Now, now, I say you take three touchdowns. Well, I'm sorry but you should only take straight bet.
Clark:Yeah. Touchdowns. You should never parlay touchdowns. So, you know, if you, I can't imagine it's more than plus 400. I'd say this, you also, I mean, everyone knows this.
Clark:You're not going to put $20 on a plus 5,000 odds parlay and then only a dollar on plus 100. It would probably would be reversed and so it's just making sure that you know how you should you should spend your money. The way I do it is say for a week, I'm going, I, so, for the entire NFL season, I'll start off with that. Entire NFL season, you know, I'm a college kid. It's not like I have an insane amount of money.
Clark:So, I just say $100 for the NFL season. If I lose it all, I lose it all. Can't say that's happened, you know? Yeah. We are up.
Gabe:Because you're a you're a sports betting expert because you're on the podcast. So, we're both up on the year of course.
Clark:Yep, yes, yes, yes. And you know, I was up $100 like two weeks ago and now we're not up by as much but it doesn't matter. Yeah. Alright. So, you know, you went.
Gabe:Probably the referee, referee is going to evolve somehow Vegas made the call. Yeah. A good bit.
Clark:Generally, generally speaking, it is Vegas's fault, not mine, course. But what I'm saying is like, so, dollars 100 over the entire season, you know, if you, for those that don't know, a unit is just 1% of your bankroll. So, if my bankroll is $100 a unit is $1. So, a plus 400 odds parlay, you shouldn't be betting more than one unit.
Gabe:You
Clark:should and so I'm only supposed to put $1 on that. Yep. And then for each week, you know, there's a lot of games. There's a lot of parlays I like, whatever and so, I I give myself $10 to spend each week. And you know, some some will lose, some will win but hopefully, a break even if not, you know, profit for each week and so, just over the $10 you can have as many parlays or whatever as you want but that means if it's a parlay of plus 400, you do know, I do more, no more than a dollar.
Clark:Most likely, I'll do like 50¢. You know, sometimes you you can have a little bit of fun with it but if you truly want to make money and not just go for the thrill of sports betting, you gotta be conservative and bet. The higher the odds, the less money you put on the bet. You know, if it's a minus say it's minus 200 odds, yeah, you can go ahead and put like 10, you can put 10 units on it. I wouldn't personally do that but you can do that because yes, it's minus 200 odds more likely to hit.
Clark:Yes, you can put a little bit more.
Gabe:So, the units are so important because as you mentioned, let's say you have a budget of $10 per week or whatever. As you continue to bet smart and win money, it'll be okay. I can spend $15 this week or my units are gonna increase, right? And it's gonna lead to me making more money. It's playing the long game, right?
Gabe:And that's something that my dad and I have done for years. So, I love that. Something I have about parlays. If you are gonna place a parlay, please make sure it makes sense, right? Like don't don't take a team to lose, like don't take some, like, let's say for example, the Packers are playing the Vikings.
Gabe:And you pick the you pick Green Bay to win and then but you take Aaron Jones rushing yards. Alright, just like sit and think about it, right? If if if the Packers are winning, the Vikings aren't gonna run the ball. Alright? Just make sure you're as I like to say, you're probably follows a story, right?
Gabe:So, for example, you might wanna take a quarterback over passing yards, please pair that up with a wide receiver receptions or please pair that up with wide receiver or receiving yards or running back under rushing yards or whatever. It has to follow a script, has to make sense. So please, I implore you to make sure that your parlays follow theme. The last thing I wanted to talk about is role changes are more important than season stats. Now what do I mean by that?
Gabe:A lot of people, if they're sports betting, especially if there's, something they're not familiar with, what they'll do is they'll just find a player and they'll look at their season, their entire season. They look like, oh, you know, this guy averages 25 points in the NBA and I'm gonna take him to get 22 tonight, right? And that's for the season long. But let's say, let's say in the past week or so, like he is unlimited minutes, he got hurt or let's say that there was a trade that happened where this guy is splitting time, right? Stuff happens if I were to bet on something right now in the NFL, I don't care what happens weeks one through five.
Gabe:Honestly, I don't even know if I care about weeks one through seven. I just care about the last three weeks. What is changed by the NFL deadline? Who has gotten hurt? The the team, the roster, and the NFL roster in week one or week 10 through trades or injuries are completely different.
Gabe:You have to know and be up to date what is going on with your player and their team when you bet on them. So, I implore you, please do your research. Don't look at the season long. Look what has happened to predict what will happen. You know, have nothing else to say that.
Gabe:I just have
Clark:a fun little comment though. Sure. You were saying that don't take the Packers money line and Aaron Jones rushing yards. And I was thinking like, well, that makes sense because I was still in in my head is like Aaron Jones is on the Packers. So.
Clark:I just would like to say I I I had, you know, elite but lack of bone knowledge at the same time.
Gabe:Okay. Yeah, I appreciate that. That was a great comment there.
Clark:I'm sure.
Gabe:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, with that being said, that is all I have for us today. It a was fun episode, man. We talked about a lot of stuff. Even did a new segment there where we talked about being smart.
Gabe:Obviously, the last thing I'll add about that is just like don't bet money you can't afford to lose. Don't chase chase your bets with live bets. Please do not live bet. Tonight, for this Thursday night game, Well, we, sorry, let me rephrase that. I will not be betting live betting Thursday night game tonight.
Gabe:When you guys hear this, it'll be college football Saturday, of course, and then NFL games. Please do not live bet those games. That's how you lose even more money. You think you're gonna beat the books. You will never do that with live betting and yeah, just be smart with that.
Gabe:With that being said, Clark, appreciate you being on today. Taking time out of your Thursday to record this episode. Man in the cameras, man in the mics, man in the stats over there, not the GR geography though we have learned. We will work on that. I promise you listeners at home, I appreciate you guys tuning in to another episode of Hedging the Bet brought to you by Impact eighty nine FM, allowing us to use our studio.
Gabe:Of course, we're always grateful. That being said, stay sharp, keep hedging your bets.