Basketball IQ Podcast April 5, 2024

What is Basketball IQ Podcast?

Welcome to NBA School and the Basketball IQ Podcast! I am your host Charlie Lawrence, and if you want an educated breakdown of all things NBA, this is the place for you!

Unknown Speaker 0:00
You're listening to local programming produced in KU NV studios. The content of this program does not reflect the views or opinions of 91.5 Jas and more the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Board of Regents of the Nevada System of Higher Education.

Unknown Speaker 0:19
Welcome to MBA school on the basketball IQ podcast. I'm your host, Charlie Lawrence. I'm here to give an educated breakdown on all things NBA.

Unknown Speaker 0:33
Welcome, welcome. Welcome to this week's episode of the basketball IQ podcast today's date, April 5 2024, the playoffs start in a week and a half, I'm super hyped. You know, we our final four basketball I believe today, which I will not deny. After probably the first couple rounds of the tournament, I didn't watch as much at school stuff going on. You know, the NBA was starting to ramp up again. So I've switched my focus back to that. As we get towards the last few games of the season, some teams, five or six games left. Seating is huge for some some younger teams that don't have as much playoff experience. Seating is probably very important to them, while others it doesn't matter as much. You know, although I don't I don't really notice that narrative anymore. I mean, I'm sure it's still alive. And it's still thing, but I don't notice I mean, it was mostly a thing with Lebron James it was like as I go it doesn't matter for the for seat five c six, he was still gonna make finals. Like that was always that I don't I don't feel like that's a thing anymore because the league is just too talented. That if you especially in the West, and even the east to a certain extent, if you get to a certain seed and have to play somebody in the first round, which then leads to the second round your chances of making the finals probably go down. Like my first topic. And if this kinda smoothly goes into my first topic is the New York Knicks who are coming off of a win last week against last week last night against Sacramento and who received terrible news that Julius Randle will be getting season ending shoulder surgery, shoulder surgery. It's always a word that's messed me up ever since I was a kid. After apparently re aggravating it and re aggravating the injury in a full contact practice. According to Chris Haynes, that was his report. Before the game, he was trying to rehab the shoulder and it drew aggravated and like like the Post said, and you'll need surgery, which sucks. Even though the Knicks have been they've been bobbing above water ever since the initial dislocation happened against the heat on January 27. I believe they'd gone 15 and 14 during that stretch without Randall, including last night to win. Which is a lot better than it's not better actually than the 1317 when he was active. They were you know, there were some days where there were the third seed in the East. And this just sucks, but it's not debilitating. I think they could still win a playoff series without Julius Randle. Now their chances of beating Boston in the second round. Were little to none with him anyway. So from the standpoint of really making a difference in terms of where they're going to go in the playoffs, like Steven Naismith and talking about orange and blue skies, orange and blue skies is one of my favorite thing. Things that he says. He just be like orange and blue skies, we're going to the conference finals. And honestly, if you just look at the standings right now they'd be playing. If the if the season ended today, they'd be playing Orlando in the first round now with Julius Randle. It's not as much of a matchup nightmare because there's still that size there. But when you take them out of the lineup, who's going to guard Paulo? Like seriously precious assure, good luck. For Isaiah Hartenstein on some positions like Julius Randle allimand. He's not an amazing defender, but he can at least move his feet and try with somebody like Paulo. But with the injury. And honestly, I don't really see them falling to six. Although, at this point in the season, maybe falling to six is actually good. Because if Orlando stays at four, and Cleveland's at three I liked the matchup with Cleveland a lot more simply because obviously last year's playoffs, they beat the Cavs I think and five. So it's not only that they have the mental edge there. But they also when I say when I talk about size with Orlando, what I really mean is size with skill. Because Cleveland's bigs are big as hell. Like they just like ever, Mobley and jared allen are both 610 611 jared allen might be closer to seven feet tall. So it's not the fact that they're big. It's the fact that they're big with little to no skill. I mean, Evan Mobley can put the ball on the floor at times. But jared allen really is just a lob threat. And he is he's a great player. I'm not trying to downplay him, but there isn't that fear factor of ever Mobley, getting you an ISO of light followed us. So I still feel like in kid the calves guards are small, with Digi and Donovan Mitchell. So I feel like even the four or the three man, which at times is mixtures. Sometimes it's been dean Wade this season. Like their one through three is just small. And for the Knicks, those positions are filled with big bodies. So I think that's it was a big reason they lost last year, the Cavs did. And I think it would be why they would potentially lose again. Because of that size now without Randall that makes a difference. It just does. Because instead of Julius Randle, it would probably be either not even OG because OG might not be there. Mitchell Robinson Hartenstein might play some for it's probably going to be precious a true or if they're smart about it, they can play Boyan Bogdanovich at the fore and then space out of a mobile and take away his interior defensive ability. But more big picture stuff about the Julius Randle injury, he'll be reevaluated in five months. So his most early return time will be during training camp of the 2425 season. And the Julius Randle career. ARC has been one of the most interesting I think, in basketball because he gets injured his rookie year I think he broke his leg his work here. And then he has a couple of weird years with the Lakers. He's a part of that young core. And then he signs with the pelicans on this weird like one year Pruvit deal. In the 1718 season, I believe. I know it was at 19 I think I believe he signed to prove it deal with the pelicans because he wants to be a free agent in 2019. And then he signs with the Knicks. And he was seen as this like, quote unquote consolation prize for not getting Kevin Durant and Kyrie. And then the Knicks have a terrible year and that 1920 season. I don't even think they won 20 games a year was a shortened year but still. And then. In 2021, he has a resurgence and the Knicks make the I believe they were the five seed or the four seed and they get kicked by the Hawks. But hey, Julius Randle most improved player. And then 2022 happens. And it's basically I mean, they weren't as bad as they were in 2020. But it's like damn, Drew's Randles. Back to be normal again. When you look at his numbers from that season, they're not great. He played in 72 games, he only averaged 29 And five, which is a lot worse than 24. Tennant sucks.

Unknown Speaker 10:03
And then in 2023 they get Jalen Brunson from the Mavs. And which turned into a steal that I'm not going to let people forget that Hindsight is a must have. Because when that signing happened, I don't remember not one media personality. Be like good for the next great signing. I remember hearing that once. And now, you know, like I said, hindsight, everybody's like, ooh, look, we can do the Muslim steel siding. That's not how you felt back then. But I digress. And in that 23 season, he averaged 2510, and four, back to similar, if not better stats than his most improved player season. And then this year, he's averaging 2495 and 46 games and gets injured. And it's like, damn. Example number 73. On the Knicks can't have any nice things. They've been decimated by injuries all season. As soon as they train for OGN and OB his elbow gets messed up. And Mitch Robinson has been in and out of the lineup for most of the season. Be I just I feel bad for the next man. And I don't normally feel bad for them. Because I still believe even though I am a Laker fan, I understand that we have probably the most annoying fan base in the NBA. And I do understand that but and the Knicks fell into that category, so never feel bad for them. It's like damn, you know, like y'all, we're having a great season. You know, and she just injuries and I think it's gonna go back to criticism on Tom Tibideaux because that's what New York media does. And Tibbs does have a history of his teams breaking down and falling apart in March and April so I'm not saying to fire tips because I do not think that that's ever the correct solution. I think when teams go through rough structures and then think that fire in the coach is going to be the answer I think it's a really stupid I'm again I'm a Laker fan we fired Frank Vogel was not his fault but yeah, don't fire tips just I don't know maybe hire better training staff just get good bro. That's that's really what this is. But like I said the Knicks are currently the fifth seed coming off the win against the neck the next win against the kings and the chances of beating Orlando without Randall in the lineup definitely decreases because of what the magic can percent matchup wise. Because that's that's really it's been a collision course all season. I've seen on my timeline that magic Nix has been a thing that's been anticipated since like February. And when they trot out a lineup of coal Anthony Jalen sons, Jalen Suggs, fronds, Paulo and a window Carter. And then they come off the bench with Jonathan Isaac. Here, Harris, Anthony Black is six, seven at point guard, even though he's probably not going to play much in the playoffs. But that's still that's still another piece. And the Knicks. Without Julius I just don't see. At the end of the day, the playoffs is really all about physicality. And it's not all about physicality. That's kind of a misnomer, but size does matter. In multiple facets of life and in the playoffs. So you know, presstitute, Chewy, a six, eight. I don't I don't know. Jonathan Isaac has the same height issue. And same weight maybe not same weight person. Sure. You're big dude. I'm yapping but the point is this hurts the next chances of being true contenders. Obviously when you lose your second best player they've been treading water but I just don't think in a playoff situation. That not having Julius it might swing the pendulum that Orlando or any other these teams have Indiana somehow, you know, makes it into that matchup and the magic fall which is very possible With the Knicks having to be so Jalen Brunson centric. It makes them a lot more beautiful now that they don't have a second guy to go to. And it's kind of been by committee. Josh Hart has taken that mantle Donte. DiVincenzo has had a couple 30 Point games in the last couple of weeks. But the Knicks are definitely a lot less threatening, without their second best player.

Unknown Speaker 15:28
As we move on to the next segment. A lot of people think narrative talk is kind of annoying.

Unknown Speaker 15:37
Yeah, and sometimes I may be one of those people. But honestly, this is it's how basketball discourse is created and passed down through generations. You know, if a Duo or team doesn't when nobody cares about context, how it happened, when it happened, why it happened, no one cares. Because at the end of the day, you lost and you can bring up all their different very valid reasons why you lost. And it will not matter. Example, a the Utah Jazz, there's probably I haven't done the research, but there's probably a lot of very good reasons why they never won a championship. One of them probably being that they ran into arguably the greatest player of all time, twice in a row. You they can't control who they play. So maybe in some fictional universe, when Michael Jordan doesn't exist, maybe the jazz have title. Who knows? Unless the clippers, right the ship, and when in the next couple years, maybe Paul George leaves. Who knows? Because I've seen some rumors about that. But if they eventually don't win, the narrative will be it was a failed experiment. So you may be asked yourself, Charlie, what are you talking about? What gets your point? My point is that I saw Bill Simmons talk about this. Is this the Boston Celtics blast, real chance at winning a championship with the duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Now, I'd haven't done a lot of Celtics talk. Because I feel like it's not you know, it's not great. Podcasting, or it's not great entertainment to y'all to be like, Wow, the 33 at home. cool like that. That's not entertaining, right? But I did find this conversation really interesting. Because there are plenty of reasons over the years like I could and I've lived through it all. I can give valid reasons why they lost every year. Last year, the biggest reason the Celtics ended up losing game seven and not completing the three Oh, comeback was because of Tatum's ankle. But if I have a son or daughter that really likes basketball, and they start watching hardwood classics in 20 years, and they're like, or they start going through basketball reference, and they're like, Dad, how the hell did this team not when I could give them all these reasons, but the other day they won't care. They would see that Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown was a failure. So the reason I'm bringing this up is because really since I would say since 2022, that first finals run was the first official year. I'd say after that, honestly, because not even if you all remember the first half of the year, they were terrible. So this is really the first 2022 23 Last year was the first time they've had championship expectations as a duo. Meaning JB and JT this, that was the first year you know, and I think that's what makes this duel is so interesting, because it was Jalen brown seventh year and Tatum sixth year. And they've been to conference finals and they made deep playoff runs. But I really feel like last year was the first time they had real expectations to do something, because 2022 I mean, they had the best defensive basketball the second half of the season. So we expected them to carry that over into the playoffs. But if it didn't, my point is is that that didn't start at training. camp. There wasn't a belief of it 2021 22 That was there was an immediate belief like, oh, the Celtics, they're gonna make the finals and win the championship. There was none of that. And that started last year. So the whole reason I'm doing this is because Boston clinched the best record in the NBA on Wednesday, after beating the living out of the thunder. And how many years if they don't win this year? And they don't win next year? When are we going to start talking about splitting up the duo. Now, I know we talked about it in 2021 when that stretch was happening, but even I back then was like this is kind of premature. You know. And maybe 2025 will be a little premature. Because like I said, it would be your three of them having expectations to win championship. But this year, in my opinion, when you look at the landscape of the NBA when you look at how Milwaukee is doing, and a Cleveland is playing the season, and now every other decent team in the east is honestly not playing that well or like the Knicks, who we talked about in the previous segment are injured. This is the Celtics best and easiest chance to make the finals probably for the foreseeable future. Drew Holliday and Porzingis have been amazing. I've talked about that last week about how Porzingis has been dominating mismatches in hunting them all season. Drew Holliday has been one of the best on ball defenders and basketball with Derrick white. Derrick white being one of the most efficient catching shoot three point shooters and off the dribble. Believe it or not in the NBA. And the main issue or the main concern with Boston was all the loyal players aren't good. Oh, well. Sam Houser, Payton Pritchard and Luke Cornette had been halfway decent kind of good this year, which is a big reason that they ended up getting 60 wins and could potentially reach 6465 Which would be one of the greatest records of all time. They had the third best writing in NBA history net writing and me history. Third, the only two teams ahead of them were the 96 in the 97 bowls who both won the title The the starting five of the Celtics, the derrick wijeratne A brown Tatum Porzingis as the third highest plus minus and all basketball and it's actually the highest starting five plus minus and all basketball. When you look at, like I said earlier with is this their last chance to win when you look at the cap situation. That's not necessarily the case. Because other than your holiday who has a player option for 2425 I'd like to think they'd want to lock that up. Kristaps Porzingis doesn't hit unrestricted free agent shield to an unrestricted free agency till 2026 Jason Tatum was a player option in 2025. Everybody else is locked up at Luke Cornette as a free agent, cool, you can replace that guy like I said he's been great this year but you can replace him and Sam Houser has a club option coming up this summer. So the only real issue is locking up gerada long term or at least long term enough is really the only

Unknown Speaker 24:08
real problem here. So with all that said the fact that the Bucs have been disappointing this year.

Unknown Speaker 24:20
Even though they started the year with the well they made the coaching change and they've haven't been great. They've been hovering 500. The Cavs have been decent. They'd been good, but not threatening to the Celtics good even though they've had some great games against them this year. The Knicks are without Julius Randle Orlando's really young same thing with the Pacers. And honestly, when you look at the Western Conference, the only team that can really mess with the Boston Celtics is the Denver Nuggets They're the only one. So the only person who's standing in the way of Jason Tatum hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy is Nicolino coach. And in my mind, he's the only one and the nuggets are coming off a tough loss to the Clippers last night. But it doesn't matter. Now keep in mind I hate the Boston Celtics. I've hated them ever since they had cagey Paul Pierce around. And there's a there's a deep history there. I hate the Boston Celtics, I hate you. And I'm telling you, this is your best chance to win a championship since 2008. And it's not even debatable. It's not better than 2018 when y'all got Kyrie better than 2017 when the it shall happen. Even better than last year, last year was going to be rough no matter what because the Sixers hadn't beaten harden. And you know, the Bucs ended up imploding. But they would have been a rough matchup and the heat or the Michael Myers of the NBA, like I said on the episode one markeith Couple weeks ago. So the runway is there. This Boston Celtics, this is your time. And if you don't win this year, then next year, we're going to be having the same conversation. And with how certain Duo's you know, this isn't the Stockton Malone era anymore. Guys don't play with each other for more than four or five years normally unless they win a title. The only reason ad and LeBron have stayed together throughout this five year duration is because of 2020. If 2020 didn't happen ad or LeBron probably would have left last year. So duels like that don't really stay together for that long, especially today. So if they don't win this year, and then they make some roster moves. I don't know. I mean, I don't know that any of us saw the drew Holliday Porzingis stuff coming in the summer. But if they can keep this up if Brad Stevens can keep making savvy additions, the way that motherfucker does, and I don't know what it is with Celtics and GMs while always get good ones but it's annoying as hell. But if you're gonna just keep doing that and you still don't win we're gonna need to have some serious conversations about the green and white in Boston Massachusetts. need that will be it for this episode of the basketball IQ podcast I hope you guys enjoyed it. Like I said, it was a lot of narrative talk but that's that's what dominates the discourse now. Especially this time of year. I didn't want to talk about MVP because I feel like even though every every other media outlet has kind of talked about it Nicole the OIC which I think is the clear MBB right now. Guys like Che and Luca are right behind him. But I just think it's a clear you know, I think most of the awards are pretty clear. Except for maybe one or two. But hope you guys enjoy the episode. Keep it easy on this Friday or whenever you listen to this. And peace out my friends. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the basketball IQ podcast. And remember kids it's all about

Transcribed by https://otter.ai