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Mark Simon and Bob Marks revive their long-running cable TV show The Game, where they interview local leaders and talk widely about politics, business and sports.
Produced by Frank Bravo, BravoITC.com
00;00;25;21 - 00;00;46;18
Speaker 1
There you go with that music. It's got a backbeat. I give it an 89. You can dance to it. I'm Mark Simon. Welcome to the. And I'm Bob marks. Happy to be here. We're going to do an election overview sort of set the stage for November. We'll have some guests in the next couple of months. All of them will be asking about the election because Bob and I really aren't interested in anything else.
00;00;46;24 - 00;01;10;07
Speaker 1
Exactly. But, before we dive into that and before we keep laughing, it is the 25th anniversary of the attacks on September 11th in New York, the Pentagon and Pennsylvania. And, Bob, any thoughts? I guess we start with. I like all of us. I'm sure you remember where you were when. When this happened. Yeah.
00;01;10;08 - 00;01;38;12
Speaker 2
You know, it's, I was at home. I woke up and saw video of the first plane hitting the tower. And then obviously watched and then saw the second plane, and I knew this was something different. Yeah, this was pretty scary. And then I went to the Board of Supervisors meeting. They they were scheduled to have a meeting that day.
00;01;38;15 - 00;02;13;26
Speaker 2
And we had just started televising those meetings. And so I was there. The board opened up and made some comments, each of them. And then they basically said, we're adjourning. Yeah. And that was it for that day. You know, one thing that struck me at the time was the, the feeling before that that all the money, the trillions of dollars we spent on defense, we spent on intelligence, all of that, seem to just all of a sudden be very small.
00;02;13;29 - 00;02;20;29
Speaker 2
And a feeling of vulnerability. That, frankly, wasn't there before. How about you? What were you doing?
00;02;21;01 - 00;02;44;05
Speaker 1
Well, I had been in swim practice and gotten out, and there's a lobby you passed through where? Where my facility was, and there was a TV on. And, one of the towers had been hit. And as I stood there, the second one got hit, and it I mean, I still get emotional thinking about it because it was such a terrible, terrible thing to witness and just so horrifying.
00;02;44;08 - 00;03;05;01
Speaker 1
And then, of course, I was writing my daily column for the Chronicle in those days. And I went up to, my old high school site in San Bruno and Christmas High School, because you had an overview of the airport and they grounded all the airplanes. And remember standing there, I counted 43 airplanes just sitting there on the tarmac.
00;03;05;03 - 00;03;23;12
Speaker 1
And then I was talking to some of the people there, and they all admitted it was making them nervous. The absence of airplane noise, because it's a constant when you live in San Bruno, right? I'm friends. I was friends with Norman. He's got an amazing story about having to get on the phone and tell everybody. No, no, I mean it.
00;03;23;12 - 00;03;46;03
Speaker 1
We're we're grounding all these planes. And then he was called to the white House, and he used to chuckle because he's being driven to the white House and everybody is streaming out of the building. And he says to his driver, what's wrong with this picture? Yeah. And my friend John Flaherty, who was chief of staff, had gone into telling the second plane in second tower had been hit.
00;03;46;05 - 00;04;10;01
Speaker 1
And then while he was standing there looking at looking at the screen of all the planes, he heard this, this concussion from the Pentagon. So, you know, it's just it's still still such a tragedy. And it's, you know, I don't quite know what to make of where we are now, given how all we've been through, except the terrorism is continuing part of our lives now.
00;04;10;01 - 00;04;12;17
Speaker 1
And it really wasn't until that moment.
00;04;12;20 - 00;04;23;10
Speaker 2
Yeah. You know, as you'll recall, we had Norm Minetta on our show not too long after that. Yeah, he's a fairly mild mannered person.
00;04;23;12 - 00;04;25;21
Speaker 1
We should say he's Secretary of Transportation.
00;04;25;22 - 00;04;27;19
Speaker 2
Yeah, exactly. He he's.
00;04;27;22 - 00;04;28;14
Speaker 1
Cabinet?
00;04;28;17 - 00;04;48;19
Speaker 2
Yeah. And him recounting that story was just riveting in terms of being in that that bunker and having to deal with what was going on. You know, it's you when you take a job like that, you don't really think about that kind of circumstance. You're going to be put in the center of.
00;04;48;22 - 00;05;08;07
Speaker 1
Yeah. Well, and from what I hear, he was the right man at the time for what needed to be done. Yeah. Because it's clear at least one plane that they didn't know what to make of was grounded because of that. And the story goes that some guys scampered off the plane who had box cutters or something like that.
00;05;08;07 - 00;05;28;25
Speaker 1
So, you know, there was at least one more plane that was probably going to go try to hit the capital. Or something else somewhere else. So, you know, it's just a solemn day. I did watch a little bit of the president's remarks this morning. And the good news is, he wasn't inappropriate as I was afraid he was going to be.
00;05;28;28 - 00;05;51;20
Speaker 1
But. But it still didn't seem like to me he met the moment because he he really seemed to want to use it to justify what was going on with his war and Iran. But, I guess we'll see everything sort of through that prism for quite a while to come. Yeah, let's move on. Something more cheerful, like the 2026 midterm elections.
00;05;51;22 - 00;06;15;22
Speaker 1
I know you've been following maybe even more closely than I have. What's going on with the whole dispute over the ballots? My my gut level tells me, aside from the intricacies and the ins and outs, that the dissatisfaction among voters is so widespread that is going to overwhelm any attempts that anybody makes to to to mess with the election.
00;06;15;24 - 00;06;21;16
Speaker 1
The expression somebody said it's too big to rig. But what do you think is going on there, Bob?
00;06;21;20 - 00;06;47;15
Speaker 2
Well, this week the Supreme Court actually weighed in twice on the Missouri redistricting plan. And they basically said, we're going back to the to the original map. So the Republicans are are probably going to lose the seat they thought they were going to win. The irony is they ran the primary in the new districts, and they're going to run the general in the old district.
00;06;47;15 - 00;07;11;29
Speaker 2
So, as far as vote by mail, you know, it's just too late. You know, the fact is, the Republicans have kind of run out of time. And so who knows what the Supreme Court will decide here in the next several days. But my guess is, is that they're not going to disrupt the election any more than it already has been.
00;07;12;01 - 00;07;34;26
Speaker 1
Yeah. So that leads us to what the election might actually show us in. You know, you see polling, you watch this stuff more closely than I do. The President Trump's numbers are about as bad as they can be. And I think it spills over. I don't think. I think in some ways, despite what he's telling people, I think he will be on the ballot.
00;07;34;28 - 00;07;56;23
Speaker 1
Yeah. I mean, we know most of these races are local, but, to me, the campaigns are always should be about four things. And if you're not talking about these things, you're wasting everybody's time, which is the economy, jobs, safety and security in 2024. Donald Trump talked about those things much, much more than Kamala Harris did.
00;07;56;25 - 00;08;09;09
Speaker 1
This stuff about calling everybody commies and stuff like that doesn't speak to what's on people's minds. So my sense is, there's a there's a wave coming that may even be bigger than people think it's going to be. Yeah.
00;08;09;13 - 00;08;37;20
Speaker 2
Let me run through the numbers here a little bit. And when it comes to the house, I mean, they had a primary this week. So, a lot of the house public polling is, is outdated. But here's where things stand, as far as I can see right now. The Democrats and Republicans both have 199 seats that they are very likely to hold on to.
00;08;37;27 - 00;09;11;20
Speaker 2
That leaves 37 seats, 21 of which are considered toss ups. And 16 lead, one way or the other, with most of those leans leaning towards Republicans. So if the Democrats were to win all the undecideds or the toss ups and the leans, they would get to 236. Probably not going to happen. The crystal ball Larry Sabato out of Virginia.
00;09;11;22 - 00;09;50;26
Speaker 2
Released an analysis yesterday and it it shows that, let's see where it basically shows and what he's predicting right now. Is the Democrats are going to have between 224 and 229. And with what he did add that they have some room to grow with that. So, it looks to me like the Democrats are going to have a comfortable advantage when it comes to governing next year in the House as far as the Senate.
00;09;50;28 - 00;10;19;25
Speaker 2
Each party has 47 seats that look pretty solid. And so there are six undecideds. Michigan. Texas. Ohio, Maine, Alaska and I all those races are currently within the margin of error. And I'll add one other, which is New Hampshire. Sununu versus Pappas. Which is also within the margin of error.
00;10;19;27 - 00;10;21;10
Speaker 1
You mentioned Texas. I'm sorry.
00;10;21;13 - 00;10;22;02
Speaker 2
I did.
00;10;22;05 - 00;10;22;19
Speaker 1
Okay.
00;10;22;26 - 00;10;54;09
Speaker 2
Okay. So, you know, I guess the first thing I would look at is. So what are the Republicans do as you talked about? It's a horrible environment for them. And so to me, you know, they they need to really think smaller, they need to reduce the size of the margin in the house, and they need to get to 50 votes in the Senate, which means they need to win at least three races.
00;10;54;12 - 00;11;23;22
Speaker 2
And to me, I would focus on Michigan, Texas and Iowa. They're leading slightly. The Republicans are in Iowa. They're slightly behind in Michigan and Texas. But we're talking about a point or a point and a half. So I think that's where they need to focus on. They just dumped $30 million into Kent Paxton's campaign. Yeah. Not been a great fundraiser, but he did.
00;11;23;24 - 00;11;48;25
Speaker 2
You know, he did run a primary. That was pretty bruising. Talarico has a lot of money and has been on the year quite a bit. So. But Talarico is very vulnerable. Through. Publicans have the ammunition. You know, in, in Texas. Give you some examples. Texans love the fact they don't have an income tax. Yeah.
00;11;48;28 - 00;11;59;01
Speaker 2
Talarico voted to to create an income tax in the state legislature. He's he said God is non-binary.
00;11;59;03 - 00;12;00;10
Speaker 1
Yeah.
00;12;00;13 - 00;12;28;09
Speaker 2
He said there are not two sexes, but there are six. He said Texas is like the front porch. We should welcome people eagerly into our state. Yeah. And, and other things. So you can see where where that could go. And then you've got Michigan. El said, you know, the association with with Piker Hassan. Piker who said 911.
00;12;28;12 - 00;12;59;06
Speaker 2
America deserved 911. He he also he deleted all of his tweets prior to 2023. When there was a attack on a synagogue earlier this year in Michigan. The governor said this is a and I semitism that it's worth, l I said hurt people. Hurt people. And, you know, the other thing that is being.
00;12;59;06 - 00;13;19;09
Speaker 1
Wrong, and that's all. That's all fine. If you're having a sociological discussion, but if you're running for office and trying to convince people that you're on their side, it doesn't necessarily fly. You know, I always love these guys who try to rewrite their personal history. I mean, I understand people got wound up during Covid and during the Black Lives Matter movement.
00;13;19;11 - 00;13;38;07
Speaker 1
But even then, when somebody said defund the police, you think, boy, is that really, really what you want to do? Yeah. And how do you take that back? That was then. This is now. I was you know, you kind of have to say I was a little bit out of my mind then. Well, okay. That's great. How do we know that's not going to happen again?
00;13;38;09 - 00;13;43;16
Speaker 1
You didn't mention Maine, but I assume the Republicans are going to win that race as well.
00;13;43;19 - 00;13;58;03
Speaker 2
No, I mean, right now Jackson has a lead there of about two points. Yeah, again. We're going to get a lot more polling here shortly. And have a better sense of those races.
00;13;58;05 - 00;14;17;17
Speaker 1
As people read polls. We of course, don't expect them to read them quite as assiduously as you and I do. But yeah, the margin of error, let's say it's five. That's really ten, because the margin of error can be five points in each direction. So it's really, you know, we rely so much on reporting on, on polls.
00;14;17;17 - 00;14;35;29
Speaker 1
And it's, it's I think there's always a level in which they're going to be a little at least a little bit misleading. Texas, I've always thought, is the ultimate democratic mirage. They you know, it's like when you're driving down the road and you see water ahead and it's a mirage and you never quite get to it. It's always moves.
00;14;36;01 - 00;14;46;12
Speaker 1
I think Texas is going to be like that. I think it's one of those states the Democrats will always think they can win, and I think they think they should. They can win it because they think they should win it. But it doesn't work that way.
00;14;46;18 - 00;15;15;13
Speaker 2
Yeah. You know, you have to look at one of the things you have to look at when you look at races is the historical patterns in those races in 2024. Trump won by nearly 1.6 million votes. About 14%. Now, clearly he's not as popular even in Texas. As he was in 2024. But overcoming that kind of margin in one cycle.
00;15;15;15 - 00;15;27;18
Speaker 2
Is really, really difficult. So the Democrats could make it a close race, but they could have 1.2, 1.3 million votes that they pick up and they still lose.
00;15;27;21 - 00;15;48;26
Speaker 1
Well, and and that's the challenge for the president. Can he show up and get people to show up? Can he go and do things that cause people to think, I better get out and vote? And the trouble is that when he delivers these stump speeches, they're so unfocused and mostly focused on whatever his latest grievance might be.
00;15;48;28 - 00;16;07;16
Speaker 1
Then I think I don't know how compelling he will be. You know, his whole message act as though I'm on the ballot, but I don't know, you know, you know, like the speeches he gave at their midterm convention. They're typically of Trump. They're all over the place. And so that's part of the problem.
00;16;07;21 - 00;16;35;09
Speaker 2
Yeah. You know, and again what Trump is is trying to do. He's talking to Republicans. He's not talking to anybody else. And maybe some independence. He's trying to gin up the turnout. That's really his job is to close that enthusiasm gap gap that exists between the two parties. So it's kind of a double edged sword. A lot of people don't want him coming in because he's not very popular in those states.
00;16;35;09 - 00;16;49;12
Speaker 2
But on the other hand, they really need to get the Republican turnout up closer to where the Democrats are to to really stave off what could be a huge night for the Democrats on election night.
00;16;49;17 - 00;17;12;18
Speaker 1
Yeah. So let's shift our gear. We should add there are a few races in California that are up for grabs seats as well. So California can make its contribution to the the Democratic majority. And from what I've read in the last couple of days, you may know the seats better than I do, but it looks like the Democrats are in good shape.
00;17;12;18 - 00;17;15;17
Speaker 1
And 2 or 3 of these toss up seats.
00;17;15;19 - 00;17;41;03
Speaker 2
Yeah they are. And I say they, you know, got a shot at all all five of those new seats that were created. There are a couple of races that, are, you know, are within reach. But, you know, we'll have to see what happens. So again, the Republicans have an advantage overall, a net advantage on redistricting.
00;17;41;05 - 00;17;52;16
Speaker 2
They just lost one in Missouri. But I'm not sure that's really going to matter in the end. Yeah, I think the Democrats will have a comfortable enough margin that that's not really going to be a factor.
00;17;52;23 - 00;18;01;05
Speaker 1
Yeah. Let's shift gears to the state races. You may have heard this. There's a race for governor.
00;18;01;08 - 00;18;02;24
Speaker 2
Yes.
00;18;02;27 - 00;18;07;10
Speaker 2
And they both oppose prop 40. Yeah, I heard that.
00;18;07;12 - 00;18;19;02
Speaker 1
Yeah. I, I've taken to calling Javier the nowhere man. Yes. I mean, the fact is, if if I was this consultant advising him, I'd advise him to do what he's doing.
00;18;19;05 - 00;18;19;29
Speaker 2
Yeah.
00;18;20;01 - 00;18;42;22
Speaker 1
If he takes stands on issues, all he's going to do is lose votes, and he's not going to lose the election. But, I can't think of a governor who got elected with a wide open agenda. He can he can come out and be for or against anything. And he doesn't have any campaign promises that are going to be hanging around his neck.
00;18;42;24 - 00;18;47;21
Speaker 1
Is there any way you see Steve Hilton making any sort of headway in this race?
00;18;47;25 - 00;18;48;23
Speaker 2
No.
00;18;48;25 - 00;18;51;05
Speaker 1
Yeah. Yeah. In a word.
00;18;51;12 - 00;19;09;18
Speaker 2
Sarah has the latest poll I saw about an 18 point lead. It's. Yeah, there just isn't any reason to believe. Unless something, you know, so bizarre that we can't even imagine happen. So, But Sarah's going to win.
00;19;09;21 - 00;19;41;09
Speaker 1
Interestingly, the Republicans did well enough in June. June? Yeah. June. I forget what you were in. In other years, it's March anyway. They did well enough in June that they got their nominees on the ballot in almost all the statewide races, which is always something that makes Democrats very happy because they know it's an easy race. But meanwhile, you've got really 3 or 4 figures in these statewide races, like for a governor and for treasurer.
00;19;41;09 - 00;20;05;06
Speaker 1
And those other positions are people you can think of as people in waiting for running for governor. Elena Lycus, among others. I'm. I'm feeling. Yeah. And and what's interesting about that is people already think Sarah is going to be a one term governor. They maybe for the reason that he's, you know, he's not doing anything now.
00;20;05;06 - 00;20;15;07
Speaker 1
He's not doing anything that attracts attention or excites people. And from what you hear about people who know him, that's who he is. He's not going to turn people, get people all turned on.
00;20;15;14 - 00;20;34;12
Speaker 2
And, you know, I think we're seeing rapidly the progressives taking over California. And so looking ahead four years from now, I would suspect that this could easily be challenged by a more progressive candidate.
00;20;34;15 - 00;20;59;24
Speaker 1
There is an interesting race for insurance commissioner. And that's worth watching closely. I don't know how much more there is to say about it, other than it's something that people watching our podcast might want to pay some attention to, because it's a pretty interesting race. The more interesting thing, I think, are the ballot measures statewide, starting with the billionaire tax prop 40.
00;20;59;26 - 00;21;03;01
Speaker 1
Boy, everything about that tells me that's not going to pass.
00;21;03;04 - 00;21;13;28
Speaker 2
Yeah. The latest poll hasn't has it at 48%. Yes, 41%. No. That polls about three weeks old.
00;21;14;00 - 00;21;16;13
Speaker 1
And there's been really no campaign so far.
00;21;16;15 - 00;21;47;04
Speaker 2
Yeah. The camp. Well, I can tell you, I've seen blanketed commercials. Basically on a no vote. 3 or 4 different spots that are pretty strong. So we'll see what happens. What's interesting is it creates a dilemma for Newsom, and presidential ambitions because he's come out against it. But I understand he's not really raising money for it.
00;21;47;05 - 00;22;17;18
Speaker 2
He's not really going to play a high profile role in the campaign. He runs the risk of having a problem when he runs for president. Of being weak on building against billionaires. You know, being part of that financial club. So that'll be interesting. Yeah, I my gut feeling is it's going to fail. You know, when it's under 50%, that's not a good thing.
00;22;17;23 - 00;22;20;29
Speaker 2
But, we'll see.
00;22;21;01 - 00;22;41;23
Speaker 1
Yeah. You know, it's, to me, the interesting thing about if you look at who's giving money to it. Aside from the people you might expect. Yeah. This is a this is an idea that I think a lot of people would support if they thought it was a better drafted proposal. And we were talking off the air before we started.
00;22;41;26 - 00;23;06;15
Speaker 1
We all loved the initiative because we're born and raised in California and feel good about having that authority. But it really is no way to make policy. I mean, some of the decisions voters are asked to make, you know, no offense to the average voter, but they really shouldn't be asked to sign this. I don't know if I subscribe to Kevin Mullen's view, which on our last show, that it should be a national policy.
00;23;06;16 - 00;23;30;29
Speaker 1
Right. Because if that's that's where the debate goes. It's never going to happen anyway. Right. But it does seem like it's a badly flawed something that could have had could have had more support if it had been written. I mean, the major flaw is that it's it's a tax on total assets, not just income. And it's the incoming equality that's bothering people, not whether or not they have more than one house.
00;23;31;01 - 00;23;54;29
Speaker 1
Prop 39 voter ID, that got on the ballot. I, I tend to think that a lot of these things are just going to fail. This one. I don't know. I think there may be widespread support for that idea that you need to make sure that people showing up to vote are who they say they are. But I think the system is more secure in that area than people realize it is.
00;23;55;01 - 00;24;20;22
Speaker 2
Yeah. And you know, well, nationally, and polling shows that overwhelmingly the concept of voter ID is very strong. In California. I think it's going to be a victim of just the politics in California. People hear voter ID, and they think Trump and they think Trump and they vote no. Yeah. So I think that one is going to lose.
00;24;20;24 - 00;24;25;10
Speaker 1
What other ballot measures on the ballot or cut your attention?
00;24;25;12 - 00;25;06;19
Speaker 2
45. Just just this week, it's one that nobody's really talked much about. It would weaken the California Environmental Quality Act that's been in place for a long period of time. It would make it easier and more timely to build housing and medical facilities and and listen number of categories, one of which is broadband. And I saw the the spokesperson for the no campaign, which is supported by the Democrats some labor groups and and the environmentalist.
00;25;06;21 - 00;25;28;13
Speaker 2
And he said their campaign is all about data centers and that it's it's it's going to be that in fact, this initiative would make it a lot easier to build data centers in California. So they're playing on on that. We'll see how that plays out in the end. There's a huge money difference that I think the pro side has about 30 million.
00;25;28;16 - 00;25;36;26
Speaker 2
The no site has about 4 million. But you know those numbers could change here in the, in the in the next month or so.
00;25;37;04 - 00;25;46;11
Speaker 1
Yeah. Well there would be a lot more vested interest in, in loosening the environmental laws from, from the business perspective than it would be otherwise.
00;25;46;14 - 00;26;11;26
Speaker 2
One other I'll mention, just because of prop three, which is the one that would make permanent attacks, that was put in place in, in 2012 on upper income people. The reason that this I believe is going to pass is because people are generally okay if it's not a new tax, if it's a tax that's already been in place.
00;26;11;27 - 00;26;18;16
Speaker 2
It's not anything new. That's a pretty strong argument that can be made to the voters.
00;26;18;19 - 00;26;49;24
Speaker 1
It is interesting how quickly data centers became the number one villain. Yeah. I mean, it cuts across almost all political spectrum. It's like, you know, because of the amount of water they use, the amount of energy they use, and there's an underlying current there because it's because the data centers that it's about AI. And I think nobody really unhappy with technology, but they think they don't trust the people who are pushing AI.
00;26;49;26 - 00;27;08;23
Speaker 1
Right? Because as we saw with the recent settlement of the lawsuit with meta, there's that fear that they don't care what it does to us as long as it makes them money. And so there's that undercurrent I think of, well, all these guys want to do is get rich with my water and my electricity and have me pay the bill.
00;27;08;25 - 00;27;30;01
Speaker 1
So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. Now there is an example maybe of I mean, the fact is, and we didn't get around to asking a Congressman Mullen about this, but really, the leadership for how we approach AI ought to come out of this area. You know, the congressional delegation from this area really ought to be the national experts on here's what AI needs to be done.
00;27;30;03 - 00;27;41;08
Speaker 1
Here's how it needs to be regulated. Here's how we need to advance it as an industry. But randomly picking on data centers isn't a policy so much. It's just a sort of gut reaction.
00;27;41;10 - 00;28;10;01
Speaker 2
Yeah. You know, I we had this interesting story this week where a person who's been working on a I, I guess had anthropic, the company came out basically said that between six months and three, three years, we're we're all going to be extinct. We're all going to die. Yeah. Now, what was scary? You know, you think, okay, this guy was not necessarily a high level person.
00;28;10;04 - 00;28;42;14
Speaker 2
He's obviously got an agenda. But in listening to other people, particularly the lead scientists, and he said, well, you know, he's right. He's got a point. What's happening is it is so rapidly changing year to year that in three years we could reach a level called superintelligence. And that's the point where basically the artificial intelligence has control over anything we do.
00;28;42;16 - 00;29;08;05
Speaker 2
Now, he said that there's an easy solution for this, and that is for Congress to set guidelines and guardrails on this and to have an international consensus on this. He obviously knows a lot about things that I know nothing about it. But if if the idea is we're going to depend on Congress and the international community in the next handful.
00;29;08;05 - 00;29;09;03
Speaker 1
Of years of.
00;29;09;10 - 00;29;40;08
Speaker 2
Reach, a consensus, you know, he needs to to take a class in politics. So it's going to be a story that I think is going to continue to grow. And it's becoming Partizan. Although not completely, but, the president has been very gung ho on AI and says everybody wanted data center in their community. Bernie Sanders on the other side has said we ought to do away with it.
00;29;40;10 - 00;29;43;07
Speaker 2
I think everybody else is kind of in between. Yeah.
00;29;43;08 - 00;30;04;28
Speaker 1
Yeah. My first thought when I started talking about, it's going to destroy the, you know, destroy mankind in six years. My first thought was, well, you know, we're doing a fast enough job on our own. You know, there's there's the planet begins to reject us. You know, it's like if mankind disappeared, you can almost hear the planet breathing a sigh of relief.
00;30;05;00 - 00;30;05;24
Speaker 1
Yeah.
00;30;05;26 - 00;30;09;07
Speaker 2
One thing. One thing that I don't want to.
00;30;09;09 - 00;30;20;08
Speaker 1
I don't want to drop that topic because the friend of mine are used to, you know. Are you worried about machines taking over? He said, no, I just keep a bucket of water near your computer. You just dump it on the computer.
00;30;20;10 - 00;30;38;05
Speaker 2
One one thing I heard this week, which is interesting. There's a math problem that mathematicians have tried to solve for centuries. And this year, AI was able to solve that problem.
00;30;38;07 - 00;30;38;23
Speaker 1
Yeah.
00;30;38;29 - 00;30;45;11
Speaker 2
To me, that's an anecdotal thing about how powerful, this is going to be.
00;30;45;17 - 00;31;04;22
Speaker 1
Yeah. You know, I I'll be the first to tell you. I don't really understand that that much. I used to I, I use it once in a while, mostly when I'm writing my column, when I'm doing, I need a quick fact check on something. It comes up with pretty good information, especially the more you write the question properly.
00;31;04;22 - 00;31;23;24
Speaker 1
But, you know, there's a part of me that thinks, like in my profession. I mean, how many times have I been at a press conference? I ask a question. Somebody says something and I say, well, wait a second. That's not what you said three weeks ago. Maybe AI can do that, but can it stand up and do that?
00;31;23;25 - 00;31;50;29
Speaker 1
I mean, if you watch any of the footage of the press gatherings or in the Oval Office with Trump, what's a I going to do with it? That's, you know, you've got reporters there essentially standing, standing in the face of really harsh criticism. I don't know how that translates into a machine doing it, but yeah, as I said, I don't really understand this very well, which is why we should talk about a greater length, obviously.
00;31;51;04 - 00;31;55;21
Speaker 1
Exactly. Anything else about the state wide or should we switch to local?
00;31;55;23 - 00;31;57;11
Speaker 2
Yeah. Yeah.
00;31;57;13 - 00;32;23;25
Speaker 1
Okay. Well, locally, we've got, the most interesting. There are two really main, interesting stories there. One is the number of uncontested races in school boards and city councils. We have district elections in virtually every city, in every school district now. And the idea was it was supposed to lower the threshold for people to run. And it did that, especially in the area that it was concentrated in.
00;32;23;29 - 00;32;42;28
Speaker 1
There are probably more women and minorities on these bodies than there used to be. But like in Redwood City, there were three open seats and nobody ran. Now, at least one of the candidates, one of the incumbents, was somebody that a lot of people were unhappy with. But to run against him, you had to live in his district.
00;32;43;03 - 00;33;04;23
Speaker 1
And that makes them additional challenge. The other thing that's always unsettling is to look at the number of votes you need to win in San Mateo. I was talking to one of the candidates. Either you used to have to get 20,000 votes in San Mateo when you ran a city wide. He said he thinks that the winning number might be closer to 4000.
00;33;04;26 - 00;33;27;16
Speaker 1
And that's, you know, that just encourages people not to represent the entire city. In contrast, you had in Daly City in East Palo Alto are two of the only cities left at our city wide. There are three seats open and Daly City, and they're 12 people running. There are two seats open in East, and they're ten people running.
00;33;27;18 - 00;33;48;01
Speaker 1
So that improves the chances of the incumbents will win. There's no question about it. But it was disappointing is that there wasn't a better response to people who were thinking about running. One of the notable exceptions is San Mateo. There are three seats and all three of them are being contested because growth is still very much an issue.
00;33;48;02 - 00;34;15;12
Speaker 1
There, they passed a measure some time ago. They passed a height limit. And then a few years ago, they passed a measure to allow the heights to be higher near transit and transit corridors. And the biggest project coming along is essentially a massive redesign of Hillsboro Hillsdale Shopping Center, which really won't be a shopping center anymore. It'll be mostly residential with some retail.
00;34;15;15 - 00;34;38;18
Speaker 1
But that's the controversy there. The other, the other thing that's interesting is the sheer volume of tax measures that are on the ballot. And I didn't know this. Apparently you can't put a tax measure on the ballot unless our city council enlists. It's the same time as a city council race. If you're a city, but there are 29 local measures.
00;34;38;18 - 00;35;03;19
Speaker 1
17 of them are revenue measures. And either bonds or sales taxes or parcel taxes. And as I wrote not too long ago, the total number of dollars at stake here is something like $2 billion just in San Mateo County. And that's not counting the regional sales tax measure. It's supposed to raise funds for transit, which is surprising.
00;35;03;21 - 00;35;24;20
Speaker 1
If you read it, you know, certain amount of money goes to San Mateo County in each county. But there isn't a plan in there for how they're supposed to spend the money, which is highly unusual. What we're seeing now in be interested in this you concur with. I've always thought the 10% tax sales tax is like a threshold.
00;35;24;22 - 00;35;46;00
Speaker 1
And some of these guys, some of these cities are getting close to it. Some of them may even go over if both the regional sales tax and the local sales tax pass. But that being said, there's no reason to think that they won't pass. Because as you know better than I do, Bob, if you, you know, yes, people will say they're against taxes.
00;35;46;05 - 00;36;06;10
Speaker 1
The people who are against taxes never stopped being against them. But there has to be an organized opposition campaign. And certainly in San Mateo County, where these things are likely to pass, because they're for city services and for schools, and people tend to support those things, which, yeah.
00;36;06;12 - 00;36;40;29
Speaker 2
You know, my take is that we saw in the primary that some places that have been able to pass measures were not able to pass them. There seems to be a greater scrutiny on the part of the public. And I feel like this is a feeding frenzy going on right now in terms of tax measures. And I think given the state of the economy and we think of San Mateo County being a bunch of rich people, well, that's not necessarily the case there.
00;36;41;03 - 00;37;10;28
Speaker 2
People are doing a lot of people are doing very well, but there are a lot of people that are struggling to get by. There's almost a feeling that local officials feel like the D-Day is coming, and they need to get in under the wire. You know, I thought back to the last time we had a major tax revolt in California was in 1978 with the passage of prop 13.
00;37;11;00 - 00;37;42;12
Speaker 2
And then in the early 80s, Tavis Gan had measures that, made it more difficult to pass taxes. Excuse me. So, the difference is, while there are similarities, we 1979, we were mired in kind of a no win situation with Iran and the hostage crisis. Inflation was at a level that was even higher than it was during the Biden years.
00;37;42;12 - 00;38;12;27
Speaker 2
And the Trump. Trump years. But California is a different place. It's demographically, it's different. Politically it's different. So we're going to see how the politics, the power of the Democratic Party that largely is more supportive of of these tax measures. How much that comes to play in this. And we're not just talking about this year. The Board of Supervisors is talking about attacks.
00;38;12;29 - 00;38;22;11
Speaker 2
Next year, the following year. And so I think this is going to become a bigger and bigger deal as we move forward.
00;38;22;13 - 00;38;53;22
Speaker 1
Well, in 1978, the tax revolt was over property taxes because the the value of homes kept going up dramatically, as we have witnessed. But that had a specific impact, which was, I mean, ordinary folks who bought a house for $25,000 in 1960. And by 78, it's worth $50,000, could no longer afford their property taxes. The property taxes often were higher than their house payment, which may still be the case I actually put.
00;38;53;28 - 00;39;27;11
Speaker 1
But, but but it was such a focused impact that it was easy to get people upset about it. The thing about these other taxes is there are four, I think, parcel taxes. Those require a two thirds vote. I think those might be in trouble. The sales tax only requires a 50% plus one. The bonds require 55%. So one of the things that people like the Jarvis can people would be unhappy about is that it made it easier for these things to get past the thing about a sales tax.
00;39;27;12 - 00;39;45;17
Speaker 1
Is that it's incremental. It doesn't show up every month. Or you get your property tax bill twice a year and you open up and go, oh my God, it chips away because you go and buy something and you think, oh my God, this is more expensive than I expected it to be. But the higher expense is not just taxes.
00;39;45;17 - 00;40;10;05
Speaker 1
It's spread among the cost of the product and the cost of the service. So I think it makes it harder to mobilize people. I tend to think that the anti-tax sentiment is not as broad based, at least not right now. Yeah. But on the other hand, as we talked about at the top of the show, there's a broad based dissatisfaction, a broad based unhappiness with the current status quo.
00;40;10;07 - 00;40;14;00
Speaker 1
And maybe it manifests itself by voting down some of these tax measures.
00;40;14;02 - 00;40;22;00
Speaker 2
Yeah, it'll it will be very interesting. I think it's one of the most interesting stories locally in the upcoming election.
00;40;22;01 - 00;40;52;23
Speaker 1
Yeah. Overall, you know, you're my expert. What do you think? What do you think is the mood of voters? I mean, I pointed out more than once, ad nauseam in terms of presidential races. We went from Bill Clinton to George W Bush to Obama to Trump, to Biden to Trump. You know, the swing voters have literally been swinging from one pendulum swing to another.
00;40;52;25 - 00;41;16;20
Speaker 1
So I think the sustaining theme there is, would somebody please do something? And at this point, it's almost like, I don't care what it is. Get something done. And incidentally, I want to take a slight tangent. I was disappointed in our interview with Congressman Mullen. The last thing I think the Democrats need to do if they get the majority in the House, is impeach President Trump.
00;41;16;23 - 00;41;28;15
Speaker 1
Not that I don't think he's not well worthy of it. He could well be. But I think most people don't want them spending their time doing that. It's just to my point. Would somebody please do something? Yeah, yeah.
00;41;28;16 - 00;41;55;16
Speaker 2
You know, I mean, part of the problem is that Democrats have tried to disqualify him, do everything, put him in jail. All of this. And. Well, I think there's there's a support out there amongst a lot of people. It's counterproductive. Sooner or later, one of the parties needs to step up and try to find a way to get solutions, not to score political points.
00;41;55;18 - 00;42;23;29
Speaker 2
Now, I'm not encouraged that that's that's what's going to happen, because there's always another election on the horizon, and this time it's 2028, and I'm sure we'll start talking about that race. Maybe the day after the midterms, which is when people start focusing on it. I think the mood of the people is it's striking. On the issue of affordability.
00;42;24;01 - 00;42;57;07
Speaker 2
How much prices have gone up? You know, the inflation rate under Trump, right now, today is 3.4. It's stayed steady. Biden's, you know, was was much higher. But clearly Trump came in and said, we're going to we're going to cut the cost of things. And that hasn't been the case. It's not you know, when you look at gas, when you look at groceries, I just saw this week that the cost of diesel fuel is at an all time high.
00;42;57;10 - 00;43;30;07
Speaker 2
It's crazy. Means shipping those products to the markets and things and increases the costs there. So it's not clear. You know, obviously, if we could solve the Iran situation and get out of that, and if somehow the Russian and Ukrainian could be solved, those those would be pretty big steps to do that. But I'm not sure how we're going to other than lowering gas prices at the Iran situation goes away.
00;43;30;09 - 00;43;52;05
Speaker 2
I'm I'm not sure how we're going to really cut prices, cut things. So the question the Republicans are going to say give more money back to the people. Trump is basically saying, vote for me, I'll give you $5,000. The problem with that is he said it before and he never, never gives the money. So.
00;43;52;08 - 00;44;13;17
Speaker 1
And the thing is, he he calls it a dividend. Yeah. It's our money. Yeah. It's not like he's giving me free money. He's like. He's just giving me back money they already took from me, right? I, you know, I don't know who would think that's a a good idea and believe, you know, a certain point.
00;44;13;20 - 00;44;30;02
Speaker 1
One of my favorite scenes from the movie. Animal House, where one of them turns the other one and says, hey, you screwed up. You you trusted us. It's like, at what point do you decide, you know, it's nice for him to say that, but I don't think it's ever going to happen. So it will be interesting it.
00;44;30;05 - 00;44;59;26
Speaker 1
We're going to follow this closely as the weeks and weeks come up. It's not very long. And that's the challenge for the issues you just laid out. These problems seem to get bad quickly. Making them better seems to take a much, much longer time. So even if the war ended tomorrow. Yeah. Gas prices may not be much lower by November 3rd or by, you know, or even less by the first week in October, when most of us are going to get our ballots in the mail.
00;44;59;28 - 00;45;25;23
Speaker 2
Yeah. You know, Iran has said publicly they want to kill Donald Trump. I think what they've discovered is next to killing him, damage him politically to a point where he he becomes extremely ineffective. And that's what they're doing. You remember with Reagan and Carter election. At 1201, after Reagan became president, they released the hostages. Yeah. Trump.
00;45;25;24 - 00;45;44;08
Speaker 2
Trump said something this week, which I've been feeling for a long time. The day after is the first point where they could reach some kind of deal, because Iran is intent on sending a message and punishing Donald Trump. And right now they've got the the ability to do that.
00;45;44;11 - 00;46;08;12
Speaker 1
And the funny thing about that is go off on a tangent. But the way he has empowered Iran. Yeah, I mean, they have now discovered that a weapon of mass disruption is much better than a weapon of mass destruction, because no matter what happens going forward, they can sign any agreement they want to. They can shut the Strait of Hormuz anytime they want and just wreak havoc, which is all they want to do anyway.
00;46;08;16 - 00;46;29;14
Speaker 1
Yeah. So it's, it's it's a tenuous set of circumstances over which the president has very little control as to how it's going to turn out, and certainly very little ability to make it better. Not a reflection on him, a reflection on the situation. Right. Well, on that cheery note, yes, I think.
00;46;29;18 - 00;46;34;17
Speaker 2
Remember, we're all going to be dead in three years. So it's that is that important?
00;46;34;20 - 00;46;47;18
Speaker 1
Well, I'm going to start spending my money then. Yeah. The money you said in our last show that I had so much of. Yeah. Listen, it's been fun. We'll be in touch throughout the election. I hope you'll keep coming by the game. I'm Mark Simon.
00;46;47;20 - 00;46;48;07
Speaker 2
I'm Bob.
00;46;48;07 - 00;46;51;08
Speaker 1
Marks, and thanks for being with us. We'll be back again soon.