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A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.
Justin Dyer: Hey everyone.
Welcome back to a WM Insights.
It's Justin and Mina here.
Uh, as we were prepping, I
realized, I don't know how often
we say that, but here we are.
Uh, it's good to be back.
We're actually recording
earlier in the week.
Um, it's a Tuesday just.
Making note of that, but, uh, uh, due to
some travel, we, we wanted to get this in
because of what's going on in the world.
Uh, you know, if you listen to
our last episode, uh, it was a
little bit more, uh, going over
the, the rally we've seen since.
Since April lows.
And now here we are not seeing a big
pullback necessarily, but certainly
the world has, has gotten more
interesting or, and, and arguably
more uncertain, uh, with what's going
on in the Middle East specifically.
And, um, and, and there's, and there's
reason to, to have some questions.
So hopefully we're gonna address
some of those questions you, you
may, uh, or may, may not be having,
but certainly give some comfort in.
In these uncertain times around
investing and trying to reorient
around the long term and just give
you you all, some great reminders.
I mean, just, just like a game
can change in a single day.
The world, the world can certainly
change in a single day as well.
It's always shifting.
Uh, but.
It doesn't mean you need to,
to change your, your game plan.
Um, and so we're gonna jump into it.
So Mina, why don't you just, just
walk us through what, what are, how
are we digesting the, the, the, uh,
events specifically in the Middle East?
Right.
Those are the new ones that have come up.
Um.
As we record today, it's still going on.
Doesn't seem to be, um,
deescalating necessarily.
Uh, the war, war in
Ukraine is still going on.
There's obviously interesting
tensions here at home in the us.
How do we digest all this?
Yeah,
Mena Hanna: Yeah, and from a high level,
just reacting to news and what we see.
We're seeing commodity
prices move a little bit.
Oil has has.
Come up pretty substantially since this
conflict started, because obviously
the Middle East is a hub for, for
oil in general, and there is some
uncertainty around international trade.
Now, what should you do?
I would say maybe the only thing you
should do is fill your car up with
gas before gas prices come up, but.
In general, these are shorter term shocks
and there is a playbook that we set.
We are very intentional with how
we invest, how we build portfolios.
And just like you said, you know, this
is a single play in a game, or I would
argue in a season, and you're not
gonna change your playbook because.
There's, you know, some issue and
some impact from a single play.
You have to continuously
look at the bigger picture.
Justin Dyer: That's right.
Right.
You come in with a game plan, you
don't just automatically change
that game plan ba based on one play.
We, we stay disciplined.
We, uh.
We, we stick, we stick to
the plan, uh, so to speak.
A couple great reminders too.
We, you know, we talk
about being data driven.
I know we've got some of those, uh, kind
of in, in our, uh, in our cookie jar.
Mean, what, what are those?
Give us those reminders.
Mena Hanna: Yeah.
And a lot of it really has to do with.
Getting cold feet and pulling out of
markets and missing the best days.
During these times, we
see obviously down days.
We actually just saw that on Friday
market was down more than a percent.
Well, yesterday, Monday, the
market was up nearly a percent
because the tensions were viewed.
By the market is, is potentially
deescalating a little bit.
Now, today we got a reversion of that
market's backed down a percent, but
Justin Dyer: Just ride the rollercoaster.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Mena Hanna: it's a rollercoaster,
but there's, there's highs and
lows and the impact of missing
the highs is pretty tremendous.
So there, there's a study here that
if you invested in the s and p 500
from 1990 to 2023, so for 33 years.
If you missed just the one best day,
um, and you put in a thousand dollars,
instead of having $27,000, you would have.
Justin Dyer: in the s and p
Mena Hanna: 500 in the s and p 500.
So you lose out on $3,000 just from
missing one day by missing five days.
You go from 27,000 to 17,000,
$10,000 on initial $1,000 investment.
So instead of being up
27 x, you're up 17 x.
Push that forward to 15.
The best 15 days.
You miss those.
You go from 17,000 to 9,000.
So just as you can see,
missing the best days.
It's sort of like taking your grand slams
and your home runs and your best at bats.
Out of your season averages, you
know that's going to really impact
your statistics, your rbis, your
runs a, a lot of those elements.
Totally.
So you have to make sure that
you preserve those best days
and a 33 year period of time.
You know, we were just saying 1 5,
15 days, 33 years is 12,000 days.
So you can see how minuscule.
That number of days actually is,
but it impacts returns tremendously.
Justin Dyer: Totally.
I mean, that is a small, small
needle you have to thread.
Um, so hopefully that is helpful
perspective, kind of let's call it on
the macro themes or trends that are,
that are maybe catching you off guard.
Creating questions.
Another item kind of alluded to it
here, you know, on the home front came
across an article in the Wall Street
Journal about folks, uh, letting
politics really get involved with,
with their, their money specifically
and, and their portfolio even more so.
Um, and so just wanted to.
Revisit the whole idea.
Uh, you know that we talked
about plenty around the election,
around voting with your dollars.
Uh, what's our take?
I'm, and this is a leading
question, but what's our take on
Mena Hanna: Mina?
Yeah.
Our take is, you know,
there's a lot of sides here.
We are on the side of making money
and consistently making money, and
historically the way you actually
make money is by not voting with
your political beliefs and by sort of
isolating your investment portfolio from.
Your, your views and your beliefs,
because markets trend up over long
periods of time and doing too much hurts
Justin Dyer: you.
Yeah.
And right.
You can slice and dice.
Hey, what party controls the
presidency, what party controls various
houses of, uh, Congress, et cetera.
You slice and dice it any which way, and
the numbers come out the same way, right?
It, it, there's no
predictive element there.
So thinking one party is better than
the other just is not a great way.
To, uh, allocate dollars to your point.
So what, what what we say is
don't vote with your portfolio.
Vote, vote at the ballot box.
They're, they're great reminders.
Um, so how, um, how can we, how
can we wrap this all together?
Mina, like, there's a
lot of noise out there.
We, we wanna remind people that,
hey, we're in this for the long term.
Um, and at the end of the day, right,
we're trying to, we're trying to just say,
uh, control what you can control, right?
Don't be emotionally reactive.
If, if you feel that emotion, that's okay,
but that's what this, this conversation's
designed to help appease or, or, or
calm you, um, down with, reach out to
us, you know, talk, talk to your team.
Let's talk through these questions and
or concerns with you have and questions
or concerns that you might have.
Don't vote with your portfolio.
Understand, Hey.
Mena Hanna: hey,
Justin Dyer: Missing the single best
days, missing the single few days.
And like getting that, that, that
bullseye is incredibly difficult to do.
Um, and you know, kind of a flip
side of that is time in the market
is really what matters, right?
Timing.
The timing the market is incredibly hard.
We talk about that time and time
again, but it's driven by data.
You don't want to just leave
the game because, you know.
You, you had a bad play or markets
went down in, in a single day.
You wanna keep competing.
You wanna stay in that game.
Um, and then, uh, the last reminder
I'd leave people with is that one
of the reasons why we expect higher
returns by investing in the market is
because of times like this, because
of uncertainty or because of risk.
You know, you could slap a
number of different words on
that, but just know that is.
That is the driver, right?
This uncertainty.
That is why you should expect higher
returns by investing in the market.
So hopefully those are all solid,
solid reminders for everyone.
Uh, again, if you have questions,
concerns, definitely reach
out out to the team here.
Let's talk through 'em.
We really wanna make sure your
portfolio is there to support what's
important to you, which is, uh,
accomplishing your priorities in
that customized fashion so you can
drive that multi-generational wealth.
So hopefully that was helpful.
Um, and again, own your wealth,
make an impact, and always be a pro.
Thanks for listening.